Analysis: Consistent Delta Prince a solid Woodbine Mile favorite

For bettors, the Grade 1, $800,000 Woodbine Mile on Saturday is not the easiest wagering event to find value. Once in a while, the morning line accurately lines up the runners with their actual chances. With one exception, that is the case here.

At 5/2, Delta Prince stands as the favorite, and it is hard to imagine this horse not battling for the lead as the field nears the finish line. The 5-year-old son of Street Cry and half-brother to the brilliant Royal Delta is ultra consistent having not missed the board in nine career starts for trainer Jimmy Jerkens.

Plus, he owns successful experience at Woodbine.

Delta Prince kicked off his 2018 campaign in the King Edwards Stakes (G2) in late June, and in the race he settled in fourth and chased down an uncontested leader.

Ignore the “fast” fractions seen onscreen. A quick double check on Equibase or TimeformUS will show that Shakhimat set fractions of 23.47, 46.58 and 1:09.11, which can be slow numbers for Woodbine’s turf course. It was a good win for Delta Prince.

Next, Delta Prince took a chance at the Fourstardave Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, and this time he needed to mow down a quality pacesetter in Voodoo Song. This time, Delta Prince failed to get by.

As a side note, Voodoo Song set almost unbelievable fractions on the “good” turf course, rattling off a 23.53 opening quarter and 46.89 half. These numbers are slower than what Shakhimat set at Woodbine, but comparing raw fractions at two racetracks is not a good idea. Voodoo Song ran hard and kept going, which should be a credit to him.

At least Delta Prince reached Voodoo Song’s flank, and that is more than what the rest of the field including Divisidero, Made You Look, Heart to Heart and future Woodward Stakes (G1) winner Yoshida did. Despite the loss, Delta Prince ran well.

Also, Delta Prince earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the runner-up finish. If he repeats the effort in the Woodbine Mile, it might be good enough to win.  

The biggest threat to Delta Prince looks like three-time Grade 1 stakes winner Oscar Performance, who started off his campaign in the Poker Stakes (G3).

While Oscar Performance won, there are a few points to nitpick.

Pacesetter Black Tide posted insane fractions of 22.11 and 44.73, with Voodoo Song not too far behind him. TimeformUS marked the 44.73 fraction in red.

Oscar Performance settled outside in fourth and took advantage of the setup, attacking a tired Voodoo Song from the outside and going on to victory. While Oscar Performance tied a world record that day, everything went his way.

Afterward, Oscar Performance went on to compete in the Arlington Million, and jockey Jose Ortiz pulled him up in the stretch run.

A turn back to one mile will help Oscar Performance, and it is hard denying his class as a former Breeders’ Cup champion and winner of the 2017 Belmont Derby (G1) and Secretariat Stakes (G1). The pace scenario makes him a top contender.

Next on the list are the two European invaders, Lord Glitters and Stormy Antarctic.

The former is a solid closer who recently won the Strensall Stakes (G3) at York. He also posted a good third in the Sussex (G1) against Lightning Spear, and runner-up finishes in the Summer Mile Stakes (G2) and Queen Anne Stakes (G1) at Ascot.

Meanwhile, the latter invader recently finished third to Beat the Bank in the Celebration Mile (G2) at Goodwood. Beat the Bank previously won the aforementioned Summer Mile over Lord Glitters. Two races ago, Stormy Antarctic also ran a good second in the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis - Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (G1) in Germany to Benbatl.

In all likelihood, Lord Glitters and Stormy Antarctic are close to each other in ability. It is only a matter of transferring their quality, top-class form to North America.

Divisidero is next, and he deserves consideration because he always seems to finish on the board (13 times out of 20 tries) in his limited starts as a 6-year-old horse.

Just this year alone Divisidero is 4-1-1-1, with his only miss a close fourth in the Wise Dan Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. He cannot be discounted. But it should be noted Delta Prince out-kicked him in the Fourstardave with no visible excuse.

As for an intriguing longshot, Good Samaritan sort of fits the bill after making eight consecutive dirt starts in his return to turf. While he won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at Saratoga last year and the New Orleans Handicap (G2) back in March, he has been mostly burning bettors’ win money on the other surface. Will a switch back to grass help?

On turf, Good Samaritan lost to Oscar Performance three times, but in six overall tries he only missed the board once. It could be argued he was more consistent. 

Now to discuss the tosses from the win position. 

Mr Havercamp at 6-1 will take some action as the local Play the King (G2) winner, but why? The runner-up Vanish, who also starts in the Woodbine Mile, previously won a starter allowance. In other words, Mr Havercamp faced little.  

To be fair, Mr Havercamp ran fine in the ungraded Forbidden Apple Stakes at Belmont, losing by two lengths to Voodoo Song. But he received a good inside trip.

Out of the single-digit runners, Mr Havercamp is the only one to dismiss.

La Sardane is also a toss, and not because she is female. In her five North American starts, she has failed to break 120 on the TimeformUS scale. Even disregarding the speed figures, it took an all-out effort three starts ago to win the Intercontinental Stakes at Belmont, a Grade 3 limited to fillies and mares.

Delta Prince is the most reliable horse in this field, while Oscar Performance is a threat, and the two European invaders just need to acclimate to this soil. For the most part, this is a competitive field, but the two lowest prices hold the pace advantage.