Analysis: Conquest Big E can upset in the Hal's Hope Stakes
Two horses from last year’s Kentucky Derby trail are entered in the Grade 3, $100,000 Hal’s Hope Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Irish War Cry and Malagacy. Both offer more questions than answers, as they seek to reclaim the form that made them known in the first place.
There is another former Derby trail runner entered named Conquest Big E who is in career best form. He will be the focus of this analysis.
The 5-year-old Tapit gelding turned in strong performances locally in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) and Fred Hooper Stakes (G3).
“Didn’t he finish sixth in the Harlan’s Holiday?”
Yes, but he also went wide on the first turn through a fast pace.
Conquest Big E then out-sprinted Mr. Jordan to the front, which is not an easy feat. He held a one-length advantage over his fellow gray horse.
On the far turn, Conquest Big E began to pack it in, but not before cutting fractions of 23.37 and 46.20 for a 1 1/16-mile race. He ran hard for the first 3/4 of the race, and that is not something to be ignored.
In the Fred Hooper, Conquest Big E unfortunately hopped at the start.
The leaders went in 24.09 for the opening quarter, and suddenly they all sped up to 46.57 for the half. Conquest Big E gathered himself together and joined the leading group when they quickened at the midway point.
He moved nicely on the turn with some urging and finished a close second to Tommy Macho.
What makes Conquest Big E appealing is that bettors will ignore him because of Irish War Cry and Malagacy. While all three horses once competed on the Derby trail, Conquest Big E did so two years back.
He did not last long, and people tend to remember more recent horses.
Furthermore, Donna Hurtak is not a well-known trainer.
According to BRIS, she wins at a 16-percent rate (out of 38 tries). But she already won twice at this Gulfstream meet.
The overall effect of jockeys is debatable, but top rider Luis Saez gets the call this time. He is currently winning at a 22 percent rate.
Conquest Big E needs to run well for the third time in a row, but there is no reason he cannot. He might start as the fourth choice.
The first or second choice will be Irish War Cry, who picked up many fans after wins in the 2017 Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2).
Despite the hype, Irish War Cry never quite panned out. He faded sharply in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1).
The Holy Bull win came while enjoying an uncontested lead. Also, the Wood Memorial score was arguably aided by a speed bias. But when adversity is thrown at Irish War Cry, he does not respond the same.
He still can win at short odds.
As for Malagacy, he certainly appeared flat when running second to a 26-1 longshot in an optional claimer last month. The early brilliance disappeared.
The son of Shackleford ran two powerful sprint races to begin his career, and then went slightly backwards when routing on the Derby trail.
Did he reach his peak in his second start?
Malagacy gets one more chance to prove himself capable of moving forward. Just do not expect him to be ignored at the windows.
Trainer Chad Brown will send out Economic Model. He has not competed since winning an optional claimer at Belmont Park last October.
At times, this horse can be a money burner like Irish War Cry and Malagacy. He lost at less than 2-1 in the July 28 race at Saratoga, and at 2-1 in the 2016 Bold Ruler Handicap (G3), which brings up another point.
Economic Model races infrequently. What is wrong with him?
Nevertheless, the team must be confident if his return race is a Grade 3 event. Brown is not a trainer to start a short horse off the layoff.
Conquest Big E is the main choice here, though. He can either be used on top or back wheeled underneath.
For other value, give Pletcher’s low-profile entrant Send It In consideration as well. His class is proven by the Excelsior Stakes (G3) win, and the speed figures are decent enough. Without any Derby trail starts on his record, the value is less likely to be weighed down.