Secret Oath vs. Echo Zulu: Who might win Kentucky Oaks?

With Secret Oath officially pointing toward the Kentucky Oaks again on May 6 at Churchill Downs, the comparisons between the daughter of Arrogate and last year’s 2-year-old filly champion Echo Zulu will carry on for the next few weeks.

According to oddschecker, Echo Zulu remains the slight favorite over Adare Manor in overseas wagering. Surprisingly, Secret Oath is either the third or fourth choice, with Kathleen O. more popular in many books. 

Adare Manor blew out the field in the Las Virgenes Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita by 13 lengths, but the two-time winner shows zero Oaks points because trainer Bob Baffert has not been allowed to earn Derby or Oaks points this season. With Adare Manor's recent transfer to Tim Yakteen, she can earn enough points to join Secret Oath and Echo Zulu at Churchill Downs with a win in Saturday's Santa Anita Oaks (G2).

In a comparison just between Secret Oath and Echo Zulu relative to their chances in the Kentucky Oaks, who wins?

With their final prep races over, Secret Oath beats Echo Zulu in almost all categories. Secret Oath still might need to deal with Adare Manor and other fillies, but there is little doubt she can at least defeat Echo Zulu.

In current-year speed figures, Secret Oath’s 111 on TimeformUS for winning the Honeybee Stakes (G3) stands higher than Echo Zulu’s 107 in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Secret Oath made a small regression to a 109 figure when third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last weekend, but that number is still higher than Echo Zulu's 107.

Granted, Echo Zulu ran a 113 on TimeformUS when capturing the Spinaway Stakes (G1) last September and a 114 in her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. But it is highly questionable whether 2-year-old speed figures are useful in the next season, especially when many precocious juvenile stars do not ever take a step forward after peaking early. 

Could Echo Zulu move forward speed-figure-wise in her second start off the layoff? Sure. But how much does she need to move forward to compete with the top Kentucky Oaks contenders? Even Echo Zulu's 114 last year is only a touch ahead of Secret Oath's best TimeformUS figure this year. If not Secret Oath, a few other Oaks-bound fillies, including Adare Manor, are capable of matching Echo Zulu's best numbers. 

As for current-year class, Secret Oath’s third-place finish against males in the Arkansas Derby (G1) puts her ahead of Echo Zulu, who competed against a small and weak field in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).

To explain, Secret Oath lost by only 3 1/2 lengths to Cyberknife, who is an improving 3-year-old with an outside chance to capture the Kentucky Derby next month. Cyberknife won his start prior to the Arkansas Derby in a Fair Grounds optional claimer on Feb. 19 by three lengths with a 114 on TimeformUS. He won the Arkansas Derby with the same 114.

In contrast, Echo Zulu won the Fair Grounds Oaks by a nose over Hidden Connection. Before the Fair Grounds Oaks, Hidden Connection had faded to a disappointing fourth in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) after gaining a clear lead from an injured filly, and she finished an even more distant fourth by 13 1/2 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Favor finished 2 1/4 lengths behind Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Before the race, Favor had only a Gulfstream maiden win and optional claiming win to her credit, with a TimeformUS figure high of only 97.

Losing by 3 1/2 lengths to Cyberknife is more impressive than winning in a desperate manner against a closing Hidden Connection and beating the inexperienced and unproven Favor by only two lengths. 

What about the overall fitness and preparation to run in the nine-furlong Kentucky Oaks? Secret Oath is way ahead of Echo Zulu in this category.

Secret Oath already shows three starts this year, including a 7 1/4-length win in the Martha Washington Stakes and 7 1/2-length win in the Honeybee Stakes (G3), before finishing third in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby last weekend at Oaklawn. If nothing else, she now owns experience at the Kentucky Oaks distance, and it came against males. 

In contrast, Echo Zulu made only one start this year in the Fair Grounds Oaks at the shorter 1 1/16 miles. Even last year in Echo Zulu’s sparkling 4-for-4 campaign, she did not run nine furlongs.

Given those facts, Secret Oath looks more prepared to tackle the nine-furlong Kentucky Oaks than Echo Zulu, who did not reappear until March and now must stretch out to a new distance after barely holding on against Hidden Connection.

Echo Zulu’s only advantage is her early speed. Because Echo Zulu likes to set the pace in her races, she might secure a great upfront position and avoid any kickback or other traffic problems in a large field. Secret Oath enjoys running from mid-pack, which makes her liable to hit traffic.

Otherwise, Secret Oath hits the mark better in other categories compared to Echo Zulu and figures to offer horse players a better Oaks price as well since Echo Zulu will remain a popular choice. If the final choice is between Secret Oath and Echo Zulu, the better option is clear.