Can Arabian Lion handle longer route distances?

Arabian Lion has been picking up momentum lately for trainer Bob Baffert and Zedan Racing Stable with two wins and one second in his last three starts. One of those wins came Saturday in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes at Belmont Park, where he made use of stalking tactics to finish strong and win at the seven-furlong distance.

One question is whether Arabian Lion can stretch out to nine or 10 furlongs and compete in the traditional Grade 1 dirt routes for 3-year-olds coming up in the summer months, including the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park and the Travers Stakes at Saratoga.

If Arabian Lion can go long, then the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November becomes possible. Perhaps he could use his speed to emulate Bayern’s winning run in 2014. Afterward, the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1), Saudi Cup (G1) and Dubai World Cup (G1) all become intriguing route options.

Right now, Arabian Lion's more recent performances indicate being able to stretch out to nine or 10 furlongs. With that said, some of his earlier route efforts on the Kentucky Derby trail felt disappointing.  

Last December in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), Arabian Lion came into the race after a runner-up finish in a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Keeneland and a six-furlong maiden win at Santa Anita. 

Off those two starts, the public made Arabian Lion the 2-5 favorite. After sitting in second and tracking his stablemate Carmel Road, Arabian Lion surprisingly began to fade badly on the far turn and ended up losing by 12 lengths.

In his next race, Arabian Lion tried the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) in February. This time, Arabian Lion set the pace under pressure from his stablemate Hard to Figure and lasted a bit longer before fading in the stretch and losing by 5 1/4 lengths to his other stablemate Newgate. Hard to Figure hung on for second and Worcester picked up third.

At that point, it was hard to believe Arabian Lion could stretch out to nine furlongs, let alone handle half a furlong less. It felt reasonable to assume Arabian Lion wanted to cut back to seven furlongs because his best performance came when second in the Keeneland optional claimer.

But Arabian Lion’s last three starts leave a different impression.

After fading in his first two route attempts, Arabian Lion tried the Lexington Stakes (G2) in April at the 1 1/16-mile distance. He gave a vastly improved effort to finish second by half a length to First Mission after setting the pace alone and fighting back in the stretch when First Mission took the lead. Arabian Lion's only mistake came on the far turn when he did not corner well and left the rail open.

Then in the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico, he set the pace uncontested again before repelling a challenge from Tapit’s Conquest on the far turn. Arabian Lion ran on strongly in the stretch to win by four lengths.

Arabian Lion earned career-high TimeformUS Speed Figures of 119 and 123 in the Lexington and Sir Barton Stakes, which seemed to dispel the notion that he could not compete routing, at least when he set the pace.

Last weekend, Arabian Lion then cut back to seven furlongs in the Woody Stephens. Instead of setting the pace again, Arabian Lion took the pocket position behind the pacesetter Federal Judge and Drew’s Gold in second. On the turn, Arabian Lion went outside those foes and blew past Drew’s Gold to give a visually pleasing performance in victory.

In his last three starts, Arabian Lion proved himself capable of winning or competing well in two-turn routes, at least up to 1 1/16 miles, and he showed new stalking tactics at seven furlongs. Arabian Lion looked like a different horse compared to his earlier winter version.

Given how strongly Arabian Lion finished in the Lexington and Sir Barton, he should handle longer route distances. In addition, if Arabian Lion can accept a stalking position while going longer, it will give him a greater chance to succeed in dirt routes because he can adjust if another horse wants the lead and save his energy for later. But even if Arabian Lion ends up only stalking in shorter races, he looks more than capable of handling nine or 10 furlongs with a comfortable lead.

Forget about Arabian Lion’s disappointing fades in his two route starts in the winter months. This version of Arabian Lion feels new and exciting. Now Arabian Lion enters the second half of the year as both a proven high-level sprinter and a two-turn stakes-winning router.

This colt feels similar to Bayern in his ability to win at different distances and gives Baffert no shortage of options in terms of what race to point him toward. Expect Arabian Lion to continue his fast improvement in the summer and fall races, either in longer sprints or in longer routes.