Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge reveals key wagering lessons

Along with the Breeders’ Cup races, the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) ended on Nov. 3. Winner Charles Grubb took home a $300,000 prize and also secured a berth in the National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas.

For those unfamiliar with the BCBC, to even enter the tournament required a steep fee. Players needed to cough up $10,000 in real cash, with $7,500 of that amount going toward an official bankroll. Thankfully, entrants keep their final amount won.  

In addition, the rules required players to wager at least $600 on a minimum of three Day 1 Breeders’ Cup races and seven Day 2 Breeders’ Cup races, with the entire $7,500 bankroll bet over the two days.

Obviously, it was a tournament for the elite handicappers and bettors. What can the average horse player learn from the BCBC?

Here's what I observed having seen the bets made by each contender.

1. Even the best bettors lose a lot (but they make it up)

Grubb lost on more races than he won. On Day 1, he failed to hit a single ticket in his first three races over the course of 12 bets. Throughout those 12 bets, he lost $2,200. But in Race 6, when Newspaperofrecord dominated the Juvenile Fillies Turf, he hit a trifecta wheel for $11,154 with the winner keyed in the first slot and runner-up East keyed in second. In the same race, he also lost four other backup trifectas with East keyed in third for $60 each and a $200 win bet on East. 

Grubb went on to hit exacta wheels at more “modest” payoffs in Race 7 and 8, before missing a $240 trifecta wheel in Race 9 and a $396 win bet in Race 10.

The $11,154 obviously made up for the losses, and to lose so much leading up to that big Day 1 win shows how a bettor needs some mental strength to succeed in betting.

Everyone will lose in this game, beginner or expert. A smart player will eventually get ahead though if he or she keeps plugging away with sound logic and bets.

2. Some bettors failed to hit a single wager

Going down the list, it appears some players failed to win at all. Page 933 of the PDF file shows Brian Chenvert, who failed to hit a single wager over two days and got hit with the 10,000-point penalty for a final score of -10,000.

He qualified for the tournament, so it's unlikely Chenvert is a poor player. For whatever reason, he had an unlucky two days. Maybe he failed to see a Breeders’ Cup race that caught his eye, as the penalty suggests. 

Bettors can go through entire cards without a strong opinion, so it is not unusual.

3. They bet a lot of real money

Chenvert did not lose $10,000 in Monopoly money. That is real money.

On the flip side, Grubb's trifecta wheel came on a $240 play. He also hit two separate trifecta wheels in the Breeders’ Cup Classic with payoffs of $32,262 each after risking $480 on both of them.

If there is anything to take from watching how much money serious horseplayers spend, it is that the best players get ahead because they spend a lot. Bettors like Grubb probably do not wait around for a life-changing 133-1 Arcangues score. In his Classic tickets, he keyed Accelerate on top, while throwing in longshots underneath.

For the average person, maybe this means not wasting time with $10 bets on difficult races. Some people call these “action” bets because players doing this are only bored and want a quick thrill. Perhaps wait until that race where the outcome looks clear, and then hit it hard with $50 or more. Betting more money forces the player to think about the wager carefully and structure the tickets with confidence. It encourages patience.

4. One type of bet appeared more successful than others

Running down the plays, trifecta wheels often seemed like a successful wagers. It certainly carried Grubb to victory, as his Juvenile Turf Fillies and Classic hits reveal. He also used exacta wheels and win bets too.

The second-place Ed Abel relied on plenty of win-place-show bets on Day 1, but look at his final bet on Day 2 in the Classic – a trifecta wheel where he spent $1,200 and earned $80,655 back. Abel actually backwheeled Thunder Snow in third for that big score.   

5. One type of bet was used to help meet the minimum race requirement

On Day 2, Abel bet $600 to show on Marley’s Freedom in the Filly & Mare Sprint, and he lost, as she missed third by a head. Why would he bet $600 to show on such a short-priced favorite? Even if she finished third, that's a relatively small payoff.

In all likelihood, Abel only used the Marley’s Freedom bet to keep up with the minimum race requirement. Most of these bettors do not play show bets in a serious manner. Either the show bets are paired with win and place bets for real wagers, or only used to avoid the 10,000-point penalty. The return on the bet is not enough.

For another example, notice the fourth-place Ryan Mueller did not play one show bet over the two days. The return on the bet is not enough.

Yet, the bet remains popular with beginners, and even some experts vouch for it.

People like the feeling of winning, and it is true beginners who use this wager can move on to more complex plays in the future once they taste winning.

Unless the race is a bridge-jumping situation, where one superstar is getting pounded -- think about Arrogate in the 2017 San Diego Handicap, or more recently Abel Tasman in the Zenyatta Stakes -- show bets do not make sense, especially by itself without the win-place attached. It shows a lack of confidence in the outcome.