Breeders' Cup 2020: Two singles for Friday's card

One of the more difficult parts of handicapping is deciding how much faster a hand-ridden winner is capable of running. A horse who wins with a quiet jockey is supposed to offer more next time, but in most cases, there is no firm answer.

On Friday's Breeders’ Cup card at Keeneland, there are two easy last-race winners who arguably merit consideration as singles. One of those horses starts in the undercard Songbird Stakes, while the other is in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. For them to merit the top spot requires an eye-catching performance.

Those two fillies act as keys in the Pick 3 tickets listed below the analysis.

Keeneland Race 2: Songbird Stakes

Farsighted broke her maiden locally on Oct. 2 with a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is a competitive number. She won the race by seven lengths.

Find a way to watch the replay, whether on Keeneland’s website or elsewhere.

On the turn, Farsighted went to the lead while traveling wide under her own power. At the top of the stretch, she only required a few light pumps and one light whip tap by jockey Julien Leparoux, before she easily drew clear of the field and won under a hand-ride to the wire.

Given how Farsighted breezed to the finish, it was likely a much better performance than the seven-length margin or 93 TimeformUS rating indicates.

Farsighted is 5-1 on the morning line. To compare Farsighted’s TimeformUS figure to some other single-digit odds runners in this race, the 9-2 Joy’s Rocket shows a 98 for her fading fourth in the Frizette Stakes (G1). The 4-1 The Grass Is Blue ran an 85 en route to winning a local optional claimer. California Lily took a maiden race at Woodbine by 5 ½ lengths with a 98, although that figure came on a synthetic surface.

Considering the ease in which Farsighted won and the fact she ranks among the better fillies in that race without trying, she is a worthy single in the Songbird.

The two races afterwards are wide open. Here are the probable bets.  

Win: 11

Pick 3: 11 / 2,5,10,13,14 / 2,6,7,8

Keeneland Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

As most handicappers know, Princess Noor is the morning line favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies despite owning relatively light speed figures.

With that said, there are positive signs in her form.

To recap her races first, Princess Noor is an undefeated filly with easy wins in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and Chandelier Stakes (G2). She took the former race by 6 ½ lengths and the latter one by an impressive 8 ¼ lengths. The margins are not what makes those “easy” though, as it takes watching those races to understand.

Princess Noor coasts to the wire with no effort. Many times handicappers or other racing personalities exaggerate an effortless win, but this time it is legitimate.

Also notable is that Princess Noor took dirt early in the Chandelier.

Once Princess Noor tips out in the clear though, the race is over.

Some horses trained by Baffert cannot adapt to rating tactics, which makes it nice to see that Princess Noor can wait patiently behind horses and then move. The ability to sit behind horses gives her some versatility and more strategy options.

From Post 7 though, Princess Noor is unlikely to be racing inside. She can settle out in the clear behind speed horses such as Vequist and Dayoutoftheoffice and possibly Simply Ravishing. Breaking from the rail, Simply Ravishing will be forced to contest the lead with those two fillies, or get stuck in the pocket and eat dirt for the first time as the rail filly.   

No, Princess Noor’s TimeformUS figures of 95 and 99 are not great. Admittedly, Simply Ravishing owns a 109 for the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) win, and Dayoutoftheoffice shows a 113 for the Frizette Stakes (G1) over at Belmont Park.

Handicapping does not mean only taking the high figure horse in each race though. Baffert is not taking Princess Noor across the country to lose. He likely knows the filly can offer a lot more run in the stretch, but she has not been asked to yet.

Also, watch Princess Noor’s morning workouts on XBTV. She consistently finishes stronger than her workmate towards the wire. The fact that Baffert trusts Princess Noor to work with the older horse Leading Score on Oct. 17 is a sign of confidence.

Princess Noor is the play at 8/5 or higher.

To make a small note about the Juvenile picks too, Sittin On Go is still the main choice. But after thinking about the race more and talking to other handicappers, Essential Quality is moved up to the top slot alongside him, along with Classier.

Win: 7

Pick 3: 7 / 3,5,10,12 / 5,8,9