Breeders' Cup 2020: Post-draw winners and losers

Post positions make a difference in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland, at least in most races. The starting position does not make up the greatest portion of handicapping, but it gives bettors one last reason to choose or lay off a horse.

Below are thoughts on the post positions of select horses in several races across the two-day event. Without emphasizing ability, which are the winners and losers?

Friday, Nov. 6

Keeneland Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Post Winners: #4 County Final

Post Losers: #14 Golden Pal

County Final seems likely to fall into a cozy pocket trip, right behind expected speed horses Momos, Bodenheimer and Golden Pal. He can save ground on the turn and switch out. From there, it is only a matter of owning enough ability.

In contrast, Golden Pal is likely to travel wide into the turn from Post 14, outside of Momos and Bodenheimer. As a talented sprinter, he might overcome the post, but handicappers need to keep the wide trip in mind before accepting 8-5 or less. 

Keeneland Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 

Post Winners: #8 Classier

Post Losers: #4 Likeable, #7 Jackie’s Warrior

This is a tough pace scenario for Likeable, Jackie’s Warrior and Classier. Classier is in a better spot though outside of his two pace opponents. Baffert horses typically want the lead, but if there is any chance he can sit off the leader a bit, he drew the right post to secure that position.

Likeable is a promising horse on paper, but he might take all the early heat with Jackie’s Warrior and Classier breathing down his neck, or he could accept the pocket position and eat dirt.

In a worst-case scenario for Jackie’s Warrior, he might get sandwiched between Likeable and Classier through the opening quarters. After all, he is the main target as the big favorite. When there is a three-horse speed contest, the one outside holds the advantage because of the breathing room to his right, while the others are in tight quarters.

Saturday, Nov. 7

Keeneland Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Post Winners: #7 Serengeti Empress

Post Losers: #2 Gamine, #6 Venetian Harbor

Using the same logic as above in the Juvenile, Serengeti Empress drew the best possible post if a three-way speed contest develops. She is outside of Gamine and Venetian Harbor, allowing her breathing room through the fast pace. 

Gamine is in a tough spot with the rail to her left if she sends and both Venetian Harbor and Serengeti Empress to the right. She needs a miraculous performance to capture this race.

Venetian Harbor might become sandwiched between the two speedballs, or she could play conservative, which did not work in the Test Stakes (G1).

Keeneland Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Post Winners: #5 Knicks Go, #10 Complexity

Post Losers: #1 Art Collector, #12 Owendale

Knicks Go wants the set the pace, and Post 5 is the perfect spot to gun to the front.

Complexity drew a bit wide in Post 10, but he owns enough speed to clear and secure the tracking position in second. Expect him to sit one or two lengths off Knicks Go.

Unlike Complexity, Owendale does not own the natural speed to clear from Post 12. Expect him to run wide on the first turn through a fast pace, which is not ideal.

Art Collector is in a tough spot. From the rail, he is likely to eat dirt for a large portion of the race as War of Will and Pirate’s Punch keep him locked inside.

Keeneland Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Post Winners: #10 Yaupon

Post Losers: #2 C Z Rocket, #14 Vekoma

Yaupon wants the lead, but he is not incapable of sitting off a horse or two. In his maiden score, he initially ran in third by one length before making his move. From Post 10, Rosario can assess the break before deciding whether to send to the front.

C Z Rocket will eat dirt from Post 2 instead of enjoying the outside pressing or stalking trip he prefers. He is not fast enough to sprint to the lead.

Vekoma is in Post 14, which means he gets a wide trip into the turn.

Keeneland Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Mile

Post Winners: #2 Kameko, #5 Digital Age

Post Losers: #13 Factor This

The pocket position is more advantageous in turf racing. In this race, Kameko and Digital Age are both candidates to secure the ground-saving pocket trip.

Factor This always shows good early speed. From Post 13, though, he will need to work a little harder to clear enough horses and secure decent position before the first turn. If Luis Saez on Halladay in Post 10 wants, he could even try to float out Factor This.

Keeneland Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Post Winners: #5 Swiss Skydiver, #9 Ollie’s Candy

Post Losers: #10 Monomoy Girl

Swiss Skydiver drew the middle post, which gives jockey Robby Albarado options. Albarado could wait and see if Ollie’s Candy or Monomoy Girl send and fall behind them, or he could take the early initiative and have Swiss Skydiver lead the field herself.

Ollie’s Candy owns an abundance of speed if asked, as her pacesetting effort in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) shows. But she is more likely to sit off another horse in this situation. From Post 9, Joel Rosario can see if Swiss Skydiver sets the pace, or he can let Monomoy Girl cross over from Post 10 and follow her to the lead in a pressing role.

Is Monomoy Girl going to avoid running wide from Post 10? At nine furlongs, there is enough run to the first turn that Post 10 might be fine. But it’s not ideal. She might need to outfoot Ollie's Candy to avoid a wide position into the first turn.

Keeneland Race 12 – Breeders’ Cup Classic

Post Winners: #3 By My Standards

Post Losers: #2 Tiz the Law, #7 Global Campaign

From Post 3, By My Standards can use his tactical speed and fall two to three lengths behind Global Campaign, Authentic and Maximum Security going into the first turn. Whether or not he is good enough, he drew well enough to give his best shot.

Tiz the Law does not want the inside position. His effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall shows this. If he breaks well enough, he might clear and switch outside Global Campaign and the Baffert horses if they cross over. But Manny Franco will need some luck on his side.

Global Campaign drew Post 7, but he is inside of Authentic and Maximum Security. Even if he crosses over to the rail with no problems, it is not ideal for the two Baffert horses to breathe down his neck early.