Breeders' Cup 2020: 3 horses to get excited about betting

With a month left until the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland on Nov. 6 and 7, it might seem too early to point out horses to bet on. Then again, the wide majority of handicapping is essentially done through watching graded stakes races. Most Breeders’ Cup races are not typical races, where some of the horses are unfamiliar. Bettors know these runners.

Keeping those points in mind, here are three horses to become excited about, betting-wise, in the Breeders’ Cup.

Complexity — Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile

Earlier in his career, Complexity gave the impression of a one-turn horse who needed the lead for his best shot. After setting the pace and winning the one-mile, 2018 Champagne Stakes (Grade 1) over the one-turn Belmont configuration, he tried the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs around two turns and faded all the way to 10th.

In his 2019 season, Complexity won a seven-furlong optional claimer at Aqueduct in November. Months before that in June, he ran a dismal 11th in the Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) at Belmont. To close out his three-race campaign, he also ran a flat fourth in the Malibu Stakes (G1) in December, 9 3/4 lengths behind the talented Omaha Beach.

But Complexity has developed into a better horse.

To start off this campaign, Complexity took a one-mile Belmont optional claimer in July over a quality field, including Win Win Win in second and two familiar Pletcher runners in Sniper Shot and Spinoff, who ran fifth and seventh, respectively.

From there, Complexity ran in the Forego Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on slop and turned in arguably the best race of his career at that point. After contesting the pace with True Timber through fast fractions, Complexity began to gain an advantage in the stretch run. Win Win Win took advantage of the setup, though, and mowed them all down.

For the runner-up finish, Complexity earned a career-high 123 on TimeformUS.  

In his most recent race, Complexity tried the Kelso Handicap (G2) at Belmont, again against one of his old foes in Code of Honor, the 2018 Champagne Stakes runner-up. The order did not change, as Complexity once again prevailed over the closing Code of Honor in second.

But the method in which Complexity won is notable.

Instead of setting the pace or even contesting the pace, Complexity kindly let Endorsed come through the inside and take control of the lead.

Endorsed set the pace with a slim advantage over Complexity through an opening 23.30 and 46.61 half-mile, which are relatively moderate fractions for a Grade 2-level contest. TimeformUS codes the half-mile in blue, indicating a slow pace.

Complexity fired back on the turn and put Endorsed away completely, unlike in the Forego when True Timber stubbornly remained in the final picture for third.

Once Complexity took control of the lead, he dealt with Code of Honor’s outside charge. Code of Honor had the entire length of the stretch and failed to pass him.

For the victory, Complexity earned a 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure, another career high for him.

Can he handle two turns at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile? While he folded in his lone attempt around two turns as a juvenile, this is a more consistent and patient horse. Alternatively, if he runs in the Sprint, there is little concern about using him except the short distance.

In either scenario, Complexity is a major player.

Bell’s the One — Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

In fairness to Serengeti Empress, Bell’s the One took advantage of a generous pace setup in the Derby City Distaff to mow down the field and win her first Grade 1. Serengeti Empress had to contest the lead through fractions of 21.95 and 43.77 and still fought in the lane.

But after looking at the probables list for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, the same scenario appears likely if the list holds up. Besides Serengeti Empress, quality speed fillies such as Gamine and Venetian Harbor are expected to enter the race.

Gamine does her best work on the lead, as does Venetian Harbor. Venetian Harbor’s connections reportedly were not happy with letting Gamine set an easy pace in the Test Stakes (G1). With that loss in mind, it is logical to expect more aggressiveness from their camp.

Both of them face a tall order, thoughm because Serengeti Empress never rates. The three fillies figure to burn each other out if they all enter.

Not only is Bell’s the One a good closer who defeated Serengeti Empress last time, she also owns a 4: 2-0-1 record on this course. The lone clunker came in the Ashland Stakes (G1) at a two-turn route. In Keeneland sprints, she shows two wins and one third in three starts.

Pay attention to the probables list to see if the speedy fillies remain in the race. If they all enter, Bell’s the One figures to offer a value price.

Mean Mary — Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

The front-runner Mean Mary lost by a neck to Rushing Fall in the Diana Stakes (G1) after an exciting stretch battle. But there are factors in the 1 3/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf that might help Mean Mary move forward and win next month.

For one, Mean Mary lacked Grade 1 experience going into the Diana. In fact, she competed in only three graded stakes races before that, although she won all three.

With a tough battle against Rushing Fall now under her belt, Mean Mary could carry that experience with her and improve in the Breeders’ Cup.

Also, Mean Mary’s previous wins came at longer distances. She won at 1 1/2 miles in the La Prevoyante Stakes (G3), 1 3/8-mile Orchid Stakes (G2) and the 1 1/4-mile New York Stakes (G2). In the runner-up finish at Saratoga, she lost to Rushing Fall at nine furlongs.

The slight stretchout to 1 3/16 miles in the Breeders’ Cup is supposed to help. In contrast, the distance might hurt Rushing Fall, who mainly runs from eight to nine furlongs.

On the downside, Mean Mary might face pressure from Jolie Olimpica if she heads in this direction. Also, her chances depend on the quality of European invaders. Not all European runners are high quality or handle the transition to this soil, but it is fair to fear them.

But in terms of older female American turf routers, Mean Mary is one of the best. She deserves strong consideration in the Breeders’ Cup.