Analysis: Shancelot faces tough Breeders' Cup pace scenario

Based on form alone, Shancelot fits as a contender in the Breeders' Cup Sprint on Nov. 2 at Santa Anita Park. But considering the looming suicidal pace scenario, it looks like the speedy 3-year-old colt will get compromised again.

Consider the early TimeformUS Pace Projector, which puts Landeskog, Mitole and Shancelot all up front through a fast pace. Based on running lines, the trio is likely to roughly follow the Pace Projector's algorithm predictions, too.

But Shancelot is also the least likely one to change tactics based on his past performances. Consider that in five career starts, he has always led early.

Not only does Shancelot set the pace, he always leads by comfortable margins ranging from one to four lengths. No matter the pace figures, when a horse habitually secures the lead in almost every race, he will go for it at all costs even when forced to go faster. With that in mind, Shancelot will gun for the lead in the Breeders' Cup.

With Landeskog and Mitole present, though, the task will prove difficult.

For example, look at Landeskog's April 27 effort in the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn. He broke sharp and set a blazing pace, opening in 21.31 and 44.26, which translated into 142 and 126 on TimeformUS Pace Figures.

Understandably, Landeskog could not last, fading to second behind Nitrous. 

Landeskog does not always set the pace. In his last two starts at Del Mar and Parx Racing, this gelding ran as the outside presser. If he draws outside in the Sprint, expect Landeskog to press or duel Shancelot from the two or three path. Otherwise, if Landeskog if inside then he will send.

Mitole owns some slight versatility as well. But no matter whether this horse gets all the way to the front, it is a given that this horse will apply pressure.

In his last three starts, Mitole has been within a head of the leader at the first call. Four starts ago, he pressed from outside, only ¾ of a length off.

But Mitole can also set the pace, too, as shown in his first two starts of the year. This 4-year-old colt led in both of his races at Oaklawn, including the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) he won over Whitmore.

Overall this year, Mitole owns five victories in six starts. Besides the Count Fleet, he also won the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Forego Stakes (G1). On paper, this horse is a win machine.

If Shancelot is to win the Sprint, he is supposed to battle early and put away both Landeskog and a likely Eclipse Award winner in Mitole, while holding off any stalker or closer such as Imperial Hint, Catalina Cruiser, Diamond Oops, Firenze Fire and more.

That is quite the assignment for a young horse.

Pace scenario aside for a moment, though, Shancelot is still a talented runner despite his last two losses. Three starts ago, Shancelot exploded on the scene with a 12 ½-length win in the Amsterdam Stakes (G2) at Saratoga.

It is possible fans overrated this performance. Browsing through the field, his main competition was Honest Mischief, who finished third.

Shancelot earned a 133 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 121 Beyer Speed Figure. Given the 20-point scale difference, the Beyer is a little high (or the TimeformUS figure is low). Regardless of the numbers, Shancelot is proven as a Grade 1 type.

In his next start, he set the pace in the seven-furlong Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) and almost took them all the way on a dead rail, fading to third.

After that, Shancelot ran in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes (G1) against the highly regarded Omaha Beach and was mowed down clean. But why should handicappers consider losing to Omaha Beach by a head a poor effort?

Omaha Beach will run in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile as the heavy favorite, and Shancelot only lost to him by a head in his fifth career start. Omaha Beach, a former Derby trail horse, made his eighth career start, thought he did it off the layoff.

From a big picture standpoint, Shancelot is developing nicely. But the pace scenario in the Breeders' Cup Sprint does not favor him unless Landeskog or Mitole defect.

Another factor that could help Shancelot is the post draw. In a speed duel, the inside horse usually takes the most pressure. Drawing outside could encourage Shancelot to sit off horses, even if he lacks experience doing it.

Plus, Shancelot's odds will look more reasonable this time after he started at 1/5 in his two losses.

But right now, the cards are not falling his way. To win this year's Sprint, Shancelot will need some luck on his side.