Analysis: Bet these 7 Breeders' Cup horses offering value

Breeders’ Cup weekend is often likened to “Christmas” for horse players, because solid runners who normally go off at low odds finally offer value. Next month, the annual two-day event comes to Churchill Downs again on Nov. 2 and 3.

Not every race is bet-able, even though it is the Breeders' Cup. Perhaps that is the key to staying afloat during the run of 14 championship races. But at least a few races are bound to fit the eye. Plus, because most fans watch graded stakes races for fun, the majority of the hard video analysis is done. Most bettors still remember visually what happened. 

As strange as this sounds, it is better to search for Breeders’ Cup horses who lost their final prep race, because the public will give their odds a slight break. While this is not always possible in every single race, those kinds of runners will pay generously.

Another way to find value is searching for good horses with lower speed figures, even if they won, as the majority of bettors are stuck on numbers.

There are also fast horses who are not considered “big name” by the public yet, as the majority of bettors feel safer betting on familiar names or fan favorites.

With those three points in mind, here are some interesting horses to consider.

Catholic Boy – Breeders’ Cup Classic

Catholic Boy defeated Mendelssohn in the Travers Stakes (G1) by showing good speed early on while flanking him, and passing his rival on the far turn.

Mendelssohn went on to run a super-impressive third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) after chasing a fast pace and continuing to fight. Now, it could be argued Catholic Boy met a different version of Mendelssohn at Saratoga, and the final 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 104 Beyer are nothing earth-shattering. But he can move forward.

Mendelssohn – Breeders’ Cup Classic

As mentioned above, Mendelssohn ran an extraordinary race in the JCGC, chasing an insane pacesetter in Diversify and rattling off 165, 151 and 136 TimeformUS Pace Figures, before coming down to earth to hold third behind Discreet Lover. 

Given the race he ran, 10 furlongs should not pose a problem. The one concern is trainer Aidan O’Brien, who almost never wins on dirt in North America. Still, sometimes the right horse (such as this Beholder sibling) can offset a bad statistic.

La Force – Breeders’ Cup Distaff

If La Force makes it into the crowded Distaff field, she will offer value with three straight losses. The second-place finish to Unique Bella in the Beholder Mile (G1) back in June could be dismissed as a one-off race, but the German-bred 4-year-old filly backed up the effort in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) when losing to Unique Bella again, this time by only a diminishing half length. Afterwards, she finished second in a pace-less Zenyatta Stakes (G1) to Vale Dori. This closer is blossoming at the right time and could help the vertical payoffs. 

Code of Honor – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Another interesting loser is Code of Honor, who finished a closing second after a bad start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) last weekend. The son of Noble Mission did get pace and the pedigree is a huge question mark, so including this horse is based more on instinct and feeling, as 2-year-old horses from the Shug McGaughey barn develop slower. But, it is a good sign he ran second in a Grade 1 in only his second career start. If not a win candidate, he might clunk into the trifecta at possibly double-digit odds.

Ransom the Moon – Breeders’ Cup Sprint

While this closer appeared to run a flat third in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1), the fractions are notable as pacesetter Distinctive B crawled in 22.45 and 45.45, numbers that are considered slow for top-runners at six furlongs. Distinctive B gave up the lead to Roy H, but only because of the class difference. Also, Roy H sat closer to the lead, which allowed him to strike first. With an honest pace, Ransom the Moon has a shot.

Jaywalk – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

The Frizette Stakes (G1) winner and daughter of Cross Traffic deserves a spot on this list because there is a good chance she will not go off as the favorite. Division leader Bellafina scored an 89 Beyer Speed Figure last time when she won the Chandelier Stakes (G1), while Jaywalk only earned an 84 for this race. Plus, Restless Rider and Sippican Harbor are respected by the public as well. As for the Frizette run itself, it looked picture perfect. She kept Nonna Madeline at bay, repelled the challenge from Covfefe, and held off the late runs from Brucia La Terra and Cassies Dreamer. Jaywalk rated early while going shorter at Delaware too, although that was in a sprint race. 

World of Trouble – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

World of Trouble’s chart for his Allied Forces Stakes victory at six furlongs at Belmont is a thing of beauty, as he defeated the runner-up by over five lengths, with another 12 ¼ lengths back to third. Why is that significant? In a short turf sprint, there is not enough time to separate from the field. Blowouts like this happen in dirt marathons, not short turf sprints. Furthermore, the son of Kantharos earned a whopping 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He is not a “big name” horse yet, though, which gives him a spot on this list. Most of the attention will fall toward Disco Partner and defending winner Stormy Liberal.