Bolt d'Oro should prove fantastic at Met Mile's distance

Without a doubt, Bolt d’Oro is one of the top 3-year-old horses in training. Earlier this year, he missed by a head in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park to McKinzie, and then finished runner-up to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Those are some tough horses he faced. But while Justify went on to win the Kentucky Derby, Bolt d’Oro did not fare so well, folding all the way to 12th and leaving some fans wondering if the Medaglia d’Oro colt fits in longer races.

Those clamoring for Bolt d’Oro to cut back will possibly get their wish. Trainer Mick Ruis said Sunday his colt will shorten up next out in the prestigious Met Mile, run June 9 on the Belmont Stakes unedercard.

Does he fit better in shorter races such as the Met Mile? Based on pedigree and past performances, this writer believes so. He should be a huge threat if he runs.

To some, this logic might seem insane based on the standard ways to handicap pedigree, but Bolt d’Oro is bred to run up to one mile, or a little farther if he extends himself. While he is the son of routing sire Medaglia d’Oro, the dam side of his pedigree is shaky when it comes to longer distances.

Bolt d’Oro is a half-brother to Sonic Mule, an active sprinter from the Todd Pletcher barn who cannot handle anything more than a one-turn mile. Furthermore, Bolt d’Oro’s dam, Globe Trot, is a sibling to Need, a Strong Hope mare who produced short-distance runners such as Recruiting Ready and Cove Blue. This is a family of sprinters.

Forget the fact that A.P. Indy is a noticeable presence in the bottom half of Bolt d’Oro’s pedigree. The results of the current runners outweigh the big names.

There is an argument that Bolt d’Oro’s sire Medaglia d’Oro offsets the underneath parts of Bolt d’Oro’s bloodlines, and it does to an extent. Bolt d’Oro has shown himself capable of running up until nine furlongs, and that is farther than any race his distance-challenged sibling Sonic Mule will ever fare competitively in.

Regardless, the shortcomings can be seen in Bolt d’Oro’s own races.

For example, it could be argued Bolt d’Oro flattened out in the San Felipe.

At the top of the stretch, he took over the lead from McKinzie as the bumping occurred. But then he stalled slightly in mid-stretch and ultimately loses.

He had McKinzie measured and could not close the deal, which is never the best sign when analyzing a race. To be fair, it was Bolt d’Oro’s first start off a layoff.

McKinzie is a talented horse with a bright future from the Bob Baffert barn. Maybe Bolt d’Oro just lost a dogfight to a top runner, as that would not mean he cannot go long.

However, there is an argument he flattened out in the Santa Anita Derby as well.

Pay attention to when Justify drifts out in the stretch run. This is an opening for Bolt d’Oro to close the gap and make the race interesting. But late in the stretch, Bolt d’Oro loses ground to Justify despite a few hard right-handed whips.

Bolt d’Oro ran his heart out trying to catch Justify, but never threatened.

On the other hand, Justify enjoyed an uncontested lead, muddling the post-race analysis a little bit. Quality speed horses who enjoy an such a pace scenario are tough to defeat, giving Bolt d’Oro bettors reason to back him at Churchill Downs.

But as everyone saw in the Kentucky Derby, Bolt d’Oro loomed dangerously behind Justify on the far turn and this time completely folded in the lane. He looked tired.  

Arguably, the Derby is not a true indicator of whether a horse can go 1 ¼ miles because it is an odd race featuring 20 horses and a faster-than-usual pace. A lot things happen in a large field, especially from a traffic standpoint.   

Bolt d’Oro’s only two issues were a wide trip and a harsh pace.

Pacesetter Promises Fulfilled set fractions of 22.24 and 45.77, which are fast numbers for a 10-furlong race. Justify sat on his flank, with Bolt d’Oro not far behind in third. But when Victor Espinoza asked Bolt d’Oro, nothing happened.

Justify endured the pace and won. Good Magic endured the pace and ran second. The wet track could be blamed for Bolt d’Oro’s fade, but Bolt d’Oro handled it well enough until the far turn. Horses who cannot grip a track fold quicker than he did.

With those facts put together, Bolt d’Oro looks like a horse who can win races up until nine furlongs, but will look razor sharp in one-turn races up to one mile. Logically, the Met Mile is an excellent spot for the Mick Ruis-trained runner, given he'll receive a break on the weight facing older runners.

Maybe the connections will change their minds again though and go toward the Woody Stephens (G2) or Penn Mile (G2) against 3-year-old horses. Those would work better than the Preakness Stakes at 9.5 furlongs against Justify.

The fact that Bolt d’Oro will need to face older horses in the Met Mile is probably not a huge drawback. He already showed himself capable of high speed figures at distances he does not enjoy, so it is likely he can improve going shorter no matter the age group.