Belmont Stakes 2021: One horse key to pace scenario
Right now, the pace scenario for the 153rd Belmont Stakes on June 5 appears soft, especially without the presence of Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit, his Derby presser Soup and Sandwich or even Preakness Stakes runner-up Midnight Bourbon.
Based on the probables list, one horse is key to the Belmont pace. Based on the decisions of the horse's connections or jockey, this horse can decide whether the pace is fast, or moderate if his connections prefer to rate early.
This horse is Rock Your World, who turned in a disappointing effort in the Kentucky Derby. Based on his only other dirt start, Rock Your World is a pacesetter. But he has not raced enough on the main track to place him firmly in that category.
Two starts ago in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Rock Your World broke sharp and set a fast pace with pressure from the long shot Parnelli on his way to a 4 1/4-length victory. Could Rock Your World take control of the Belmont in a similar style?
Watch Rock Your World open in 22.46 and 46.11 seconds for a half-mile, which translated into fast TimeformUS Pace Figures of 148 and 148.
Rock Your World still opened by 4 1/4 lengths late, with Medina Spirit second after a wide trip.
A few weeks later, Rock Your World failed to flash his speed in the Kentucky Derby after a poor start. After not breaking well, jockey Joel Rosario opted to keep Rock Your World wide in mid-pack through the backside and he eventually folded to 17th.
In his two turf races, Rock Your World ran as a presser or stalker type.
Even if Rock Your World breaks well, do the connections want the lead in a 1 1/2-mile race? Perhaps the Santa Anita Derby tactics were an anomaly and he sits off the leader.
Other possible pacesetters
Besides Rock Your World, Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie are logical candidates to set the pace, if only by default because of the lack of other speed present.
Essential Quality has not been a pacesetter in his three 2021 starts. But in this type of race, he owns enough speed to sit closer. In April, Essential Quality had enough speed to press Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland in April, although they were not blazing up front.
The pair went slow for the nine-furlong distance, with opening fractions of 23.83 and 48.21. On TimeformUS, Essential Quality posted pace figures of 123 and 116.
Essential Quality fought off Highly Motivated in the stretch for the narrow win.
At 1 1/2 miles, the natural pace of a marathon might allow Essential Quality to settle into the same pressing position as he did in the Blue Grass. That is, if Rock Your World does not attempt to set the kind of pace he did at Santa Anita. Think about what type of fractions typically lead in a normal Belmont or any dirt marathon. If Essential Quality runs in 23.83 and 48.21 to open the Belmont, he will find himself in the early mix.
For what it is worth, Essential Quality also posted TimeformUS Pace Figures of 120 and 125 in the Kentucky Derby while initially running in seventh and then sixth by the half-mile. This horse seems to run roughly the same early pace figures whether he is pressing the leader early, traveling in mid-pack or closing from several lengths behind.
If Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie fail to break sharp, Essential Quality might even set the pace if he runs those same early pace figures around the 123 to 125 range again.
Hot Rod Charlie set the pace in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds in late March, with moderate fractions of 23.10 and 47.04 for the 1 3/16-mile distance
Watch as he takes pressure from Midnight Bourbon.
Eventually, Hot Rod Charlie widens his advantage and wins by two lengths.
According to TimeformUS Pace Figures, Hot Rod Charlie posted moderate numbers of 126 and 126 for the first two fractions in the Louisiana Derby. As a stalker in the Kentucky Derby, he also posted similar initial pace figures of 121 and 125 before finishing third.
Similar to Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie is not a blazing horse in the first half. If the race lacks a pacesetter, though, he is capable of taking up the duty by default.
In other words, given Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie offer only mild early speed on paper, Rock Your World can secure the lead fast with his natural speed. If this horse is capable of setting pace figures of 148 and 148 at nine furlongs, he could easily lead at 1 1/2 miles with a sharp break and if the rider asks him to go for the lead. On pace figures, neither Essential Quality or Hot Rod Charlie can keep up with him.
Even if the fractions go fast in this situation, Rock Your World might settle into a good rhythm and get brave in the stretch anyway, as he did in the Santa Anita Derby. With pacesetters, sometimes the early cushion between them and the second horse is more important than fractions.
It is also possible Rock Your World rates out of respect for the 1 1/2-mile distance.
If Rock Your World opts to sit off the leader, then either Essential Quality or Hot Rod Charlie can take up the pacesetting role and set a moderate to slow pace. In this scenario, the field probably bunches up close together and the race becomes similar to a turf race.
Will Rock Your World flash the speed shown in the Santa Anita Derby? If he runs, that is the most important question to answer in the next week and a half.
Ironically enough, it might help the rest of the field if Rock Your World rates early. Without him alone on an uncontested lead, stalkers and closers hold a better chance in a turf-like scenario.