Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Which European has the edge?

With only three European shippers, all trained by Aidan O'Brien, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on Friday at Santa Anita Park, the choice of overseas options seems more limited than in some of the other turf races over the two days. But at least one of them offers an edge from a class standpoint and might deserve inclusion into most tickets. 

As the 3-1 morning-line odds suggest, the O’Brien-trained colt who looks most attractive in the the Juvenile Turf is River Tiber. He is a 2-year-old son of Wootton Bassett with respectable European class credentials after finishing third in both the Group 1 Prix Morny Stakes on Aug. 20 and Middle Park Stakes (G1) on Sept. 30. In both cases, River Tiber lost by 2 1/4 lengths to Vandeek. 

River Tiber never fell too far off the lead in the early stages of the Middle Park. But when the time came to move forward, he just did not quicken with the same burst of speed that Vandeek gave from behind the pack.

Despite not keeping up with Vandeek, River Tiber remained in the picture and barely missed second to Task Force, who went into the Middle Park with a 2-for-2 record without any prior Group 1 experience. The public might hear more from Task Force later as he gains experience.

To touch upon Vandeek more, he already had previous group-stakes experience from winning the Richmond Stakes (G2) at Goodwood on Aug. 3 and has a 4-for-4 record with three stakes wins.

In other words, River Tiber lost to Vandeek twice, but Vandeek had proven class and a knack for winning.

Besides the class of Vandeek, there is other evidence River Tiber went up against a good field in the Middle Park. The fourth-place finisher Givemethebeatboys previously ran third in the Phoenix Stakes (G1), which was won by Bucanero Fuerte on Aug. 12 at The Curragh. 

In June, River Tiber also won the Coventry Stakes (G2) at the Royal Ascot meet. He competed well against decent company in Europe.

In contrast to River Tiber, the morning-line second choice Unquestionable has credentials that feel a bit shakier in retrospect.

To start off, Unquestionable ran second in the Railway Stakes (G2) on July 2 to Bucanero Fuerte, and he also ran fourth in the same Phoenix Stakes where Bucanero Fuerte won and Givemethebeatboys ran third. 

Earlier in the summer before his back-to-back wins, Bucanero Fuerte had run third in the Coventry Stakes (G2) at Ascot won by River Tiber.

In more recent times, Unquestionable ran second to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Lux Lagardere (G1) on Oct. 1. At first glance, seeing Unquestionable run second in a Group 1 might seem to be a positive sign.

But before that race, Rosallion had run third in the Champagne Stakes (G2) at Doncaster on Sept. 16 and only 3/4 of a length ahead of the less respected O’Brien stablemate Mountain Bear in fourth. Mountain Bear will compete in the Juvenile Turf as the longest shot of the three O’Brien entries. 

In other words, Rosallion finished ahead of Unquestionable and Mountain Bear by similar margins in different races. 

After his Champagne fourth, Mountain Bear went on to win the minor Star Appeal Stakes over synthetic at Dundalk.

Using Rosallion as a measuring stick, Unquestionable and Mountain Bear feel within range of each other in terms of overall class and ability. They at least feel closer to each other than the 4-1 and 12-1 odds suggest.

River Tiber’s level seems higher in terms of overall class. But River Tiber lacks a race beyond six furlongs and will need to answer whether he can handle the stretchout to one mile in the Breeders’ Cup this week.

But all three of them need to answer the question of handling one mile. Maybe Unquestionable or Mountain Bear will enjoy the slight stretchout better than River Tiber, or they can beat him for other reasons such as adapting to the new surroundings better or enjoying the firmer turf more.

Out of the three Europeans, River Tiber has the class edge and deserves the most respect heading into this competitive Juvenile Turf.