Verifying can excel again with cutback in Indiana Derby

Verifying carries a four-race losing streak into the Grade 3, $300,000 Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Saturday. Regardless, he adds strength and intrigue to the field as a former Derby trail participant who had star potential. On the slight cutback in distance, this race can place Verifying back on track if he can turn in a big winning effort again.

Verifying can bring back the excitement of his return win. 

In January, Verifying won his one-mile return race at Oaklawn in dominating fashion by 5 1/4 lengths with a final time of 1:37.23. To put that final time in perspective on the slow Oaklawn dirt track, the older horse Ginobili won the Fifth Season Stakes later in the card in 1:37.35.

Based on that win and his previous runner-up finish in the Champagne Stakes (G1) last fall, Verifying had the potential to become a star. But Verifying had mixed results on the Derby trail and Kentucky Derby.

First, Verifying tried the Rebel Stakes (G2) at 1 1/16 miles, but an inside trip coupled with traffic problems on the turn led to a mild fourth.

On the stretchout to nine furlongs in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), Verifying sat off the long-shot pacesetter Clear the Air. Once the long shot folded, Verifying went to battle with the closer Tapit Trice down the stretch and lost by only a neck.

Although Verifying lost the Blue Grass Stakes, he ran great in defeat and gave no reason to believe he cannot handle longer route races.  

Next, Verifying tried the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby, and he went way too fast as the pacesetter before folding quickly to a tired 16th-place finish. The effort is an outlier, but now the distance seemed too long. 

On the cutback to nine furlongs in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3), Verifying went through a similar trip to his Blue Grass run and lost again. This time, Verifying was caught by Disarm, who won by half a length. Disarm had run a closing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. 

Verifying ran well in the Matt Winn, but his failure to finish off the race adds credibility to the notion he wants to cut back to a middle distance. In the Indiana Derby, Verifying finally gets to compete at 1 1/16 miles again, and he may show the flashiness seen in January.

With all that said, Verifying will not face an easy time in this race.

Hayes Strike has been on the improve in his last two starts after overcoming a poor pace scenario to capture the Texas Derby and finishing third in the Ohio Derby (G3) behind the impressive Two Phil’s and Bishops Bay. He will need only one more step forward in this spot. 

Cagliostro also can reach another level if he continues to develop. Earlier this month, Cagliostro made a late bid only to finish second by a head to Scotland in an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. The one downside to Cagliostro is that he might run significantly better with Lasix.

On the outside, Georgie W enters this race off a big local allowance win by 9 3/4 lengths June 15 in a small four-horse field. The gelded son of Tapiture competed for only the second time. For the effort, he earned a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is a decent number to build on. 

If Raise Cain starts in the Indiana Derby, he also could make noise on the cutback as well after finishing fourth to Disarm in the Matt Winn. His big race this year came when he crushed the field in the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3) over the slop.

But when analyzing who can become a star, Verifying remains the only one with the potential in this field. If he performs well, it might encourage the connections to stick to middle distances and aim for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November rather than the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Verifying can develop into a great dirt miler as time goes on.

For horseplayers, it also feels like now-or-never time for Verifying after his four losses in a row, with three of those losses at 2-1 or less. Verifying needs to win one to restore faith that he can deliver at the wire.

Given the cutback and lesser quality of horses in this race, expect Verifying to run big again and finish the race off this time. Verifying can bring back the excitement of his return win.