What have we learned about Gulfstream's turf course?

For the most part, horseplayers do not study turf biases as often as dirt bias. Handicappers who can see the turf bias hold an edge, but none of the basic past performances even indicate a turf speed or closer bias.

But by using HRN Track Trends Tool, an interesting stalker bias is seen in the first few weeks of Gulfstream Park’s renovated turf course, which reopened Dec. 1. The tool also points out that closers from inside posts are struggling.

Before running down the numbers, here is a quick summary of what led to the point of needing a turf renovation and how the track decided to fix it.

Under the track’s never-ending schedule in modern times, the course degraded under the high amount of usage. During its worst times, bettors joked about the broken Gulfstream turf course being a second dirt course.

Gulfstream chose to renovate by bringing in turf expert Leif Dickinson. According to Aidan Butler, CEO of 1/ST Racing and Gaming, “Leif has completely renovated it. We expect to have some great racing on it.”

Racing has been great for runners with a stalking style. Out of a sample of 25 turf routes, the stalker category sticks out as a successful running style with 14 wins in 25 starts, which gives stalkers an incredible 56 percent of the pie, although the course may only need time before the statistics even out.  

Early speed types still own 20 percent with five turf route wins, and closers hit at a 24 percent rate, with six turf-route wins of the 25-race sample.

More interestingly, closers are struggling in turf routes from inside post positions. No horse from post 1 through 4 has won a turf route yet.

In contrast, four runners from posts 1 through 4 won in the early speed column. Out of the stalkers, seven horses from posts 1 through 4 won.

Although the inside post positions are questionable for closers, the outside post positions show great form in turf routes in the stalker and closer categories. From the same chart, stalkers from post 7 or higher won four races, and closer types from the same post position range won five races. Of the early speed types, only one horse has won from post 7 or higher, but perhaps that is not the worst place.

What do those statistics mean for bettors?

The one category turf players need to avoid on the renovated Gulfstream turf course is inside closers in turf routes. For some reason, those horses are struggling in turf routes with zero wins, and bettors probably should avoid these races if they cannot pick an alternative.

As for the inside early speed and inside stalkers in turf routes, they are winning at a decent enough rate to not avoid them yet. Even though the course is in better condition, pacesetters still can win on this course. 

Should bettors avoid outside early speed in turf routes? Right now, it seems too early to avoid them. The one win makes it hard to dismiss the category.

Watch Mo Hawk wire the field from Post 8 in a one-mile turf route on Dec. 7. At the start, Mo Hawk clears the inside in a smooth manner under jockey Emisael Jaramillo and leads them uncontested early.

Mo Hawk then set fractions of 24.81 seconds, 47.81 and 1:10.61 before winning by 3 3/4 lengths at mild odds of 4-1. What is stopping more early speed types like Mo Hawk winning from the outside post positions? Mo Hawk didn't come in with a huge advantage as only a mild 4-1 shot. 

If the horse can clear the inside horses without trouble, then the higher post should not matter.

In any case, keep an eye on closers from inside post positions in Gulfstream turf routes. Maybe this category will improve over time and even out. But for now, those horses seem to be the horses to avoid at the moment. At the same time, favor stalkers from any post position.