Analyzing Pletcher’s chances to win BC Distaff & Classic

With one of his strongest hands ever in the Breeders’ Cup, trainer Todd Pletcher might end up with a memorable weekend at Keeneland after this edition of the two-day series of championship races that will be run Nov. 4 and 5.

The Breeders' Cup Classic and Breeders' Cup Distaff are expected to contain at least two Pletcher runners each. Here are his chances to win those races.

Classic
Pletcher entries: Life Is Good, Happy Saver.

Chance to win: Mild.

Due to the presence of Flightline, this race will prove a difficult task for any other horse to win. With that said, Life Is Good brings an abundance of talent and speed to the Classic, too. But Flightline figures to settle in a tracking spot behind Life Is Good. Furthermore, Life Is Good’s slight fade in the Dubai World Cup (G1) indicates he might not want 1 1/4 miles.

Life Is Good is a classy horse though who has handled nine furlongs successfully multiple times in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1), Whitney Stakes (G1) and Woodward Stakes (G1) with the Whitney win his best effort due to the grueling pace scenario.

No matter the early cost, Life Is Good was intent on securing an uncontested lead over Hot Rod Charlie and Olympiad. He did take the lead with a cushion through blazing fractions of 23.64 seconds, 46.84 seconds and 1:10.93.

Then Life Is Good started to look tired in the stretch. However, he kept on fighting and won by two lengths over Happy Saver, who took advantage of the hot pace to pick up second. 

For those who still want to back Life Is Good in the Breeders' Cup, he might deserve one more shot from bettors in a 10-furlong route. In fact, this race probably is his last shot before he heads off to his stud career.

As for Happy Saver, expect him to pick off tired horses late and possibly contend for second as usual. Although Happy Saver won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) as a 3-year-old colt, this is not the type of horse who wins Grade 1 races without some kind of unexpected pace meltdown. From a betting standpoint though, he is useful in the underneath slots.

Happy Saver tends to clunk in and take advantage for a piece of the pie once the top horses become tired. But since the Jockey Club Gold Cup win in 2020, Happy Saver has not taken the majority of the pie and begun to develop second-itis with five runner-up finishes and only one win throughout 2021 and 2022. To mix it up, he also ran a flat third in the 2021 Suburban Stakes (G2) and a disappointing fourth in the Lukas Classic Stakes (G2).

Distaff

Pletcher entries: Nest, Malathaat.

Chance to win: Very strong.

If Pletcher loses this race, it will come as a major disappointment.

Nest is considered an exceptional filly, if not special. She has won three Grade 1 races this year in dominating fashion, including the Ashland Stakes, Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama Stakes. Nest also ran second in the marathon Belmont Stakes against 3-year-old males, losing only to her stablemate Mo Donegal.

Nest brings tactical speed too, which is important, because it can become too easy to find traffic in a full field. She even could contest the pace. 

Watch Nest’s effort in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga. While this scenario is not preferable, Nest can handle a four-way speed duel and come out on top at the end by double-digit lengths.

Nest’s form changed. She dominated Secret Oath, who had defeated Nest a few months earlier in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

At this point, Nest’s form looks worthy of the monster label.

But if Nest fails to fire for any reason, Pletcher still holds a strong hand with Malathaat, who has taken a step forward with recent wins in the Personal Ensign (G1) and Spinster (G1). Before that, Malathaat lost 2 of 3 starts and did not seem on top of her game.

Malathaat also brings good tactical speed and probably could follow her stablemate as they both make their moves around the far turn. 

The two fillies need to make sure the expected pacesetter Society does not slip away on an uncontested lead. Society was crushed by Nest in the Coaching Club, but she also stumbled at the start and had to rush up front. 

In any case, as shown above, Nest can contest the lead if necessary. Watching this filly develop has been a treat, and she should adjust to any situation.