Analysis: Why I'm betting Vekoma in the Kentucky Derby

As most bettors know, this game is not only about picking the most probable winner, but also searching for the right value horse. If one horse is 9-2 and the other is 15-1 with only a negligible difference in ability, then the 15-1 shot is a better bet offering a greater return.

In the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Game Winner sizes up as the new favorite after Omaha Beach's scratch, with Improbable a co-second choice at 5-1. Without considering value, those two horses are now both top win contenders.

But I also ranked Vekoma fourth in an original prediction of the Kentucky Derby's order of finish before the defection behind only Omaha Beach, Improbable and Game Winner. Now Vekoma's chances increase without Omaha Beach's speedy presence, yet the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner remained a 15-1 morning line longshot. 

With Omaha Beach gone, here's Vekoma's winning case.

The most positive change for Vekoma after the Omaha Beach scratch is his path to pressing the leaders without worrying about that rival ranging up on the outside. The pace projects a bit slower now, which also helps Vekoma.

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TimeformUS' Pace Projector believes Vekoma will secure an uncontested lead through a fast pace coded in red, but that is only a testament to his high pace figures from the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Blue Grass. 

Vekoma prefers to press the pacesetter, and if it gets too hot up front, then he might fall a few lengths back as trainer George Weaver indicated in a recent interview.

“If they go 45 and change, I would imagine he’s not going to be right on that,” Weaver said. “If it’s a normal pace, around 47 or so, he should be close.”

Thus, Vekoma offers speed in a race that lost some pace without Omaha Beach, but he is versatile enough to adapt if the leader pulls a Hidden Scroll.  

Plus, Vekoma’s speed figures appear in line with Game Winner and Improbable.

Using TimeformUS, Game Winner posted speed figures of 118 in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) and 115 in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) a race later.

Improbable ran a 117 in the first division of the Rebel, then followed it up with a 120 in the Arkansas Derby in his second start of the season.

Vekoma’s two TimeformUS Speed Figures this year are 115 and 119. He earned the 115 when finishing third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes off a layoff, and then progressed to a 119 at Keeneland.

It is difficult to argue Improbable is faster because he ran one point faster in his final prep race than Vekoma. All those speed figures are too similar.

It could be argued that because Game Winner and Improbable faced Omaha Beach in at least one of their prep races, they've had to go against a higher-class horse.

But Vekoma did not face cupcakes, either, as he took on well-regarded horses Code of Honor, Bourbon War and Hidden Scroll in the Fountain of Youth. In the Blue Grass, Vekoma held off Derby rival Win Win Win with ease, in addition to the familiar Signalman.

What are the drawbacks to Vekoma?

If it rains, he shows no experience on a wet dirt surface. But to counter that point, his dam, Mona de Momma, won the 2010 Humana Distaff (G1) on a sloppy track. Candy Ride looks like a decent wet track sire too, as Brisnet says he hits at 21%. Pedigree analysis is not exact, but he appears fine for a horse who hasn't tried it yet.

Vekoma’s damside pedigree also appears sprint-oriented, as Mona de Momma’s Humana Distaff victory at seven furlongs shows. But there is nothing wrong with Candy Ride as a route sire with his 7.1 average winning distance.

For comparison, Game Winner shares the same sire, and Improbable’s sire City Zip displays a low 6.5 AWD (which is offset by his stronger dam side).

In any case, once a horse proves himself as a router, pedigree is almost irrelevant. Vekoma not only won the Blue Grass, but his finish looks strong upon replay. He shows no signs of not being capable of stretching out.

Furthermore, in today’s racing world few horses are bred for 1 1/4 miles.

As a final drawback to counter argue, everyone knows Vekoma runs with an unnatural style. In the Blue Grass, it looked like he was swimming toward the finish with all the wasted motion in his front left leg.

The egg-beater motion Vekoma uses when switching leads is a concern, but he makes it work. Remember, the mare St. Trinians almost beat Zenyatta with the same odd motion in the 2010 Vanity Handicap (G1).

In a wide-open race like this one, Vekoma can get away without a fluid stride. He only needs to secure a good position and see if he is fast enough.

At 15-1, Vekoma is a great option to use alongside the favorites or underneath. He fits with Game Winner and Improbable in the Oaks/Derby double or in other horizontals. For those still not sold, Vekoma also works as a solid underneath horse that can make the payouts more worthwhile.  

If Vekoma wins the Kentucky Derby, it would also make for a great underdog story of a horse who runs ugly and captures America's greatest race.