Analysis: Who can beat Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby?

Because of Secret Oath, Saturday's edition of the Grade 1, $1.25 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn is expected to attract more attention than usual. Whenever a filly competes against males on dirt in a big race, it stirs up excitement over the filly’s presence and debate on whether she belongs.  

Without a doubt, Secret Oath belongs against males at Oaklawn. Her last win makes her a major contender without accounting for odds or value.  

Secret Oath carries a three-race win streak heading into her toughest test, with her most recent win coming in the local Feb. 26 Honeybee Stakes (G3).

In the Honeybee, Secret Oath waited patiently for room on the far turn before moving through the inside and drawing clear in the stretch run.

For the most part, Secret Oath won under her own power. Jockey Luis Contreras did go to the left-handed crop a few times, but it was probably used to keep her on a straight line as she began to shift left a few times.

Nevertheless, Secret Oath romped by 7 1/2 lengths over Ice Orchid, with Yuugiri another 1 1/2 lengths behind Ice Orchid in third. The daughter of Arrogate finished the 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.74, which most notably beat Un Ojo’s Rebel Stakes (G2) time of 1:45.69 later in the card and ended up faster than three other lower-class races at the same distance as well.

Secret Oath earned a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 92 Beyer Speed Figure for the Honeybee win. She might need one more step up to capture the Arkansas Derby. Remember that Secret Oath had to wait a bit on the far turn of the Honeybee before dominating the field in the stretch run. She might have been capable of a faster final time.

As a mid-pack runner, Secret Oath would benefit from a swift pace. According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, the pace is expected to run fast, with Kavod leading Ben Diesel and Cyberknife through the early stages.

Ben Diesel did not contest the pace in his last two starts, though, and Cyberknife fits more as mild presser or stalker than a big pace threat. Perhaps Kavod ends up alone on a soft pace, as in the Rebel Stakes, although there is one more pace threat to be discussed below.

Secret Oath should make some kind of move on the far turn and become involved for the top spot in the stretch, whether she wins or hits the board. Her trainer D. Wayne Lukas certainly knows how to succeed in open company with fillies.

Only one other horse in the field looks as exciting talent-wise as Secret Oath, and his name is We the People, trained by Rodolphe Brisset.

We the People starts from Post 9 and might find himself near Kavod in the first half-mile, as he has been forwardly placed in his only two starts.

In his local Feb. 12 career debut, We the People found himself in the early mix of a one-mile maiden race and asserted himself late to win by 5 3/4 lengths. One month later in a local optional claimer, We the People went into the presser role and opened up again in the stretch run for another five-length win. In both cases, he finished his races in a strong manner.

How come TimeformUS Pace Projector does not place We the People closer to Kavod?

The fractions for We the People’s last start were slow, which subsequently makes the pace figures slow. With that said, We the People looks eager to run faster in the early stages and Flavien Prat likely will let him press Kavod.

For his local maiden and optional claiming wins, We the People earned 103 and 105 TimeformUS Speed Figures. The 105 figure was knocked down from a 109 because of the slow pace. If We the People can handle a faster pace, then expect him to earn another career-high figure.

We the People will enjoy a better tactical position than Secret Oath. If all goes well for him, he can put away Kavod on the far turn and create separation before Secret Oath or Cyberknife come with their closing moves.

At a reasonable price, We the People is the top selection. But Secret Oath is almost certain to give a great effort too. Those are the two final picks, with a preference to We the People on top in vertical wagers.

Win: 9 (at 3-1 or higher)

Exacta: 9 / 6