Whitmore's questionable Beyer brings up familiar flaw

As someone who has read Picking Winners by Andy Beyer over the summer, it can be written with confidence that Mr. Beyer is an intelligent man and skilled writer. His book is a treasure of useful handicapping information. 

For example, his chapter on “larceny and betting coups” gives invaluable insight into how trainers point for specific races. Within that chapter, he also discusses what is called the “Z pattern," which helped him pick some mega longshots back then.

Of course, there are also three chapters devoted to speed handicapping.

Beyer introduces the topic by writing, “Speed handicappers perform various arcane calculations to translate a horse’s ability into a number. If an animal earns a 99, he is superior to a rival who earns a 92.”

“His age, sex, class, breeding and even his name are irrelevant.”

The last sentence is important, because at Saratoga last Saturday, the track ran three Grade 1 races at seven furlongs. The Beyers for those races are either questionable, or he used age and/or class to make the numbers work. Neither option is great.

Veteran gelding Whitmore captured the Forego Stakes for older horses, while the 3-year-old Promises Fulfilled won the Allen Jerkens Stakes and the 4-year-old filly Marley’s Freedom took the Ballerina Stakes.

Whitmore earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure, and the latter two runners scored a 99 and 100 respectively on the Beyer scale.

However, Promises Fulfilled finished in 1:21.44 and Marley’s Freedom ended a touch faster in 1:21.39. Both horses ran faster than Whitmore’s 1:21.46.

Without taking age or class into account, how did Whitmore earn a higher Beyer Figure than Promises Fulfilled and Marley’s Freedom? Sometimes, it all feels like voodoo logic. Beyers are still called "speed figures," while incorporating other elements. 

According to the Daily Racing Form website, “Every performance by every horse in North America is assigned a Beyer number which reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run.”

Was it possible for the track to change between the Allen Jerkens and Forego?

Roughly an hour and half passed between the Allen Jerkens and Forego. Although it seems less possible with calm weather, maybe something changed in that time span. 

But Marley’s Freedom’s Ballerina was Race 8, right next to the Forego on the card.

So the track magically became slower for Whitmore’s race, causing him to earn a slower time, but still be rated faster on Beyers than Promises Fulfilled and Marley’s Freedom, the latter who just ran about 30 minutes earlier? It does not sound plausible.

Another explanation is Beyer adjusted the figures for age and class, despite the earlier quote. There is one recent example of when he made this sort of adjustment.

Last fall, Beyer gave Bolt d’Oro’s FrontRunner Stakes (G1) a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, slower than Paradise Woods’ 105 in the Zenyatta Stakes (G1), even though the younger Bolt D’Oro ran a faster raw final time (1:43.54, 1:44.43) at the same distance.

Beyer did not feel comfortable giving Bolt d’Oro a big number, because it would mean he would earn the “fastest Beyer Speed Figure by a 2-year-old in the last 25 years” as explained in this Daily Racing Form post, and “Each of the top four finishers would have improved between 16 and 28 points.” So, he made Bolt d’Oro lower than Paradise Woods.

He clearly incorporated age and class into the Bolt d’Oro and Paradise Woods' Beyers.

Perhaps Whitmore’s 104 is a product of his age and class as well. 

Maybe he gave Promises Fulfilled a 99 and Marley’s Freedom a 100 because those are 3-year-old horses, and for some reason, they are not on the same scale, even if the races are held at the same distance and without a change in surface speed.

While the numbers could still be accurate under their "evolving" standards, the main point is, no one likes it when Beyers are adjusted this way. The average handicapper just wants to know how fast the horse ran, without the interference of age or class.

If the track did not change in a span of 30 minutes, then why adjust the speed figure? How does that help handicappers, especially beginners?

Try explaining to a new bettor that Beyers exist to help handicappers compare times in relation to track speed, and then show them Whitmore’s Forego Beyer in comparison to Promises Fulfilled and Marley’s Freedom. What would he or she think of such a system? 

What makes this more frustrating is that DRF does not designate a controversial speed figure with a star or other symbol. The user simply has to trust them. In this situation, the discrepancy is easy to notice because these are known stakes horses, but who knows when it comes to everyday claiming and allowance races?

With TimeformUS, at least the rules are set in stone beforehand. The pace affects the final speed figure, so the horses who overcame unfavorable pace scenarios receive extra points on their scale. Beyer rules are becoming unclear.

Beyer needs to think about this question: why is it so bad to give a younger horse a massive figure when the clock shows he or shet deserves it? If it turns out the horse ran the number as a “one-off” never to be duplicated again, so what?

The notion that flukes cannot happen is preposterous. Maybe one horse freaked and the rest of the field got caught up in the fast race, creating the high numbers. So?

Beyer even wrote in his book, “To handicap a race intelligently, a horseplayer must know, above all else, which horse has superior ability. Time is the one way to measure this ability with precision. It is by far the most important factor.”  

With that said, who ran the fastest between Whitmore, Promises Fulfilled and Marley’s Freedom?

According to the speed figure, Whitmore ran the fastest. But given the actual final times and Beyer’s own logic of the importance of time, Marley's Freedom ran a smidge faster than the other two. The difference is negligible, though. They all ran about the same time. 

Adjusted for pace, Promises Fulfilled turned in the most impressive race.

The Beyer contradictions over the years do not take away from Beyer’s place in history as a legendary handicapper and figure maker. He earned the status.

But in modern times, either Beyer or other DRF figure makers are attempting to handicap the race for other bettors by making the speed figure a performance figure, whereas bettors just want a number that they can work with on their own.