Analysis: Which Vosburgh Stakes contender looks most playable?

Even though the Grade 2, $250,000 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont on Saturday brings together only five horses, it offers a great handicapping challenge with three unique challengers offering obvious flaws to choosing them.

The field includes an unproven 3-year-old gelding with a lofty speed figure, a proven older stakes performer with mild speed figures who loves Belmont, and a second talented 3-year-old with two disappointing efforts in his last two starts against quality competition.

Baby Yoda is the unproven 3-year-old gelding with a lofty speed figure. In his most recent start in a Sept. 4 allowance race at Saratoga, he dominated the field with a 4 1/4-length win over his stablemate Olympiad. From Olympiad to the third-place Ducale came another six lengths of separation.

For the impressive win, Baby Yoda earned a 114 Beyer Speed Figure and 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Given the approximately 20-point scale difference between Beyer and TimeformUS, Beyer rates the race faster.

It is concerning how Baby Yoda gave no indication in his previous three starts of running a Grade 1-level figure. One of the old handicapping rules says to remain skeptical of outlier speed figures, but that rule is more applicable to established horses deep into their careers.

Perhaps a young horse with only three starts is likely to jump forward. It is kind of odd though that he took a giant leap forward rather than a moderate step. Before the 126 on TimeformUS, he earned only a 108.

Another drawback is the name Baby Yoda. With all the publicity surrounding the speed figure, does anyone think Baby Yoda can avoid becoming underlaid this week in the Vosburgh? Nearly everyone loves the character Baby Yoda. Now that Baby Yoda the gelding has been hitting the headlines of racing news sites, most casual fans playing Belmont will want to play him.

Now to discuss Firenze Fire.

This 6-year-old horse clearly loves Belmont, with an 11: 7-2-0 record on the course. The two exacta misses came in the 2019 Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and 2020 Carter Handicap (G1) over the slop. Otherwise, he is a win machine on this course.

Although Firenze Fire loves to win at Belmont and shows a consistent record overall, his speed figures do not seem attractive. In his current campaign, Firenze Fire does not have one race above 120 on TimeformUS. He came close in June when he won the True North Stakes (G2) at Belmont with a 119. But his other four TimeformUS figures this year are 118, 116, 111 and 118.

Without knowing what races he competed in, those moderate speed figures make Firenze Fire look almost like an allowance horse. Most Grade 1 or 2-level dirt males are capable of posting a 120 or better. The exceptional runners can hit the 130 mark. For example, Jackie’s Warrior shows two races at 130 and above.

Yet in his recent start, Firenze Fire ran second by a head in the Forego Stakes (G1) at Saratoga with a 118 on TimeformUS. Firenze Fire lost because he tried to savage Yaupon and gave up crucial momentum late.

Firenze Fire has been lucky that his low speed figures remain competitive at the Grade 1 and 2 level. But if the more exciting Baby Yoda backs up his allowance win by matching the 126 on TimeformUS, Firenze Fire loses. Also, Firenze Fire might lose to the other 3-year-old in this race.

If Following Sea can return to his spring form, which saw him post a 123 in his maiden win and 120 in a Belmont allowance, he can win too.

Handicappers need to forgive his flop in the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth and third in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at Saratoga.

The nine-furlong distance of the Haskell was too far, and he ran into monsters in the H. Allen Jerkens, including Jackie’s Warrior and Life Is Good. Following Sea lost by nine lengths to Jackie’s Warrior in the latter race, but he still ran a respectable 119 on TimeformUS, matching Firenze Fire's best effort this year. If Baby Yoda fails, Following Sea only needs to repeat his H. Allen Jerkens effort to win again.

Plus, because plenty of attention is going toward the high figure holder Baby Yoda and horse-for-course Firenze Fire, Following Sea is likely to offer fair odds.

Following Sea drew outside of Baby Yoda and Firenze Fire, which keeps him in the clear and offers Joel Rosario the option of pressing or stalking.

As long as he is not the favorite, Following Sea is the choice.

An exacta with Following Sea on top probably is not a great idea because either Baby Yoda or Firenze Fire will finish second at low odds and result in a low payoff. Just a win bet on Following Sea is sufficient.