What we learned: Hidden Scroll flattered ahead of Florida Derby

On an afternoon that saw By My Standards qualify for 2019 Kentucky Derby off a maiden victory, is it reasonable to suggest an even bigger winner is still a week away from the same opportunity?

Hidden Scroll returns next weekend in the Florida Derby (G1) and, remember, the talented speed horse sparred with Gladiator King for the lead in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) last month through blitzing 22.80, 44.69 and 1:10.42 fractions. Although mis-spotted, Gladiator King faded all the way back to 11th after factoring in the torrid pace, while Hidden Scroll finished a respectable fourth. 

Even though Saturday's Hutcheson Stakes (G2) only contained four horses at Gulfstream Park, Gladiator King rebounded in a big way by winning going gate to wire.

Also, Tacitus won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) the previous week, and Hidden Scroll supporters know the relationship between him and Hidden Scroll, who was seen out-working his Bill Mott-trained stablemate on Feb. 22.

Using the standard rules of pace handicapping and the recent wins by Tacitus and Gladiator King, Hidden Scroll will go into the Florida Derby (G1) next week as a major threat. 

But use some caution, too. Part of handicapping is predicting how the public may sway odds, and every handicapper who uses pace analysis will be on Hidden Scroll. In normal cases, a horse like Hidden Scroll looks bad on paper because of the pace and the public gets a break on him next time. But next weekend, he'll likely end up among the top choices. 

Closer look at the Louisiana Derby

A trio of 3-year-old horses – Serengeti Empress, War of Will and By My Standards – ran faster on raw final time than older counterpart Silver Dust as he won the the Mineshaft Handicap (G3) five weeks ago, on Fair Grounds' last major stakes day.

However, none of them earned a higher speed figure than Silver Dust on either the DRF or TimeformUS scales. But if any 3-year-olds were going to out-run older dirt horses again at Fair Grounds yesterday, Serengeti Empress and War of Will seemed like the ones.

Yet, it was By My Standards who managed to outperform a troubled War of Will after a surprising turn of events in the Louisiana Derby (G2), while Serengeti Empress folded in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) one racer earlier when bleeding.

As for War of Will, the heavy favorite’s chances came to a close in the beginning strides when his hind end gave out.

Meanwhile, By My Standards saved ground on the inside, a few lengths off the pace set by Lemniscate. Later on, he found an opening in the stretch run and prevailed.

By My Standards received an excellent trip as he finished in 1:49.53, but he also outran Silver Dust once again on the same card, as the latter finished runner-up by ¾ of a length to Core Beliefs in the New Orleans Handicap (G2), run in 1:51.36.

Assuming By My Standards finished faster than Core Beliefs -- and that is clearly debatable because of a timing malfunction -- does that mean the speed figures from the Risen Star card were inaccurate? Well, no, not necessarily.

If going by the rules of speed figure makers today, Silver Dust’s Mineshaft numbers were accurate because of the slow pace, as isolating a race is routine practice.

Note the little “p” found in the TimeformUS past performances next to the Mineshaft class rating. The letter warns the handicapper that the speed figure is controversial.

Regardless, handicappers need to think for themselves about what makes sense, even if they do not make speed figures. Did DRF and TimeformUS disagree on a race? Does the speed figure look odd compared to same-distance winners on the card?

By My Standards looks like one to watch going forward, even with the good trip.

Serengeti Empress and War of Will receive a pass this time for the clear excuses pointed out above. The former is still reportedly possible for the Kentucky Oaks, and the latter could still run in the Kentucky Derby.

Also, TimeformUS will continue to play a major role in my race analysis, while Beyers Speed Figures are used, too, as a second option. Figures remain important.

Lone Sailor keeps on fighting

Lone Sailor failed to get the job done once again in the New Orleans, finishing third and one-and-a-half lengths behind the aforementioned Core Beliefs.

He almost looked like a winner on the far turn.

Noble Indy and Mr. Buff set a moderate to fast pace, giving the closers a chance.

Mr. Buff faded to last and Noble Indy fought on a little while longer in the stretch. While that happened, Lone Sailor swooped up wide in the stretch run and took dead aim at the leaders, which Core Beliefs held in midstretch. Silver Dust was outside.

Unfortunately, Lone Sailor looked a bit wobbly and took too long to straighten out. Only in the last few strides did he finally run smooth, but he ran out of time by then.

The Tom Amoss-trained closer is still searching for his third win. He took the Oklahoma Derby (G3) by a nose last fall and broke his maiden at Saratoga in 2017.

Despite the lack of victories, Lone Sailor will hit the one million mark soon, as Equibase lists his earnings at $974,737. This is a hard-trying colt.

Not so dominant this time

Bricks and Mortar needed everything he had to capture the Muniz Memoria (G2), barely squeaking out Markitoff by a nose.

Back in January, Bricks and Mortar won the Pegasus Turf (G1) in an impressive performance, but he looked quite normal in this instance. What happened?

Markitoff got away with tepid fractions, setting the pace in 24.82, 51.07 and 1:15.28 over the firm turf. With a faster pace, Bricks and Mortar should rebound.

With that said, it feels strange to say a horse will “rebound” next time despite winning. He did what he needed to do. There are bigger races to point towards.