Saratoga analysis: 1 well-bred filly is worth opening-day look

Similar to many summer 2-year-old stakes races, there is some amount of guesswork involved in handicapping the Grade 3, $150,000 Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga on Thursday.

Most of these fillies are developing and could step forward, making previous speed figures less important and visual handicapping a priority.

On the surface the five fillies with a chance to win the Schuylerville are Pretty Birdie, Mainstay, Velvet Sister, Happy Soul and Eagle Express. Of those five names the most interesting betting option is Mainstay, the half-sister to Vequist.

Last year Vequist ran second in her career debut at Parx Racing before winning the Spinaway Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on closing weekend at 6-1.

Mainstay is possibly an even faster developer than Vequist. She broke her maiden by 7 3/4 lengths at Monmouth on June 4 under a mild hand ride from Frankie Pennington, although technically every winner at Monmouth is supposed to win without the crop.

The replay of Mainstay’s maiden romp is available on YouTube.

Mainstay switches leads when asked and pulls clear in mid-stretch.

The only concern is that Mainstay won over slop. For those who believe in pedigree handicapping though, it is a good sign that her half-sister Vequist won the Spinaway on fast dirt as well as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. In all likelihood fast dirt is not a problem for Mainstay.

Because Mainstay’s trainer is Butch Reid and not Pletcher, Brown or Asmussen, the betting public might ignore her a bit and give the filly value. Of course that theory is reliant on the fact that casual handicappers will not notice her established half-sister. 

At 3-1 or higher Mainstay is the top selection.

The second priority is Velvet Sister, who does sport popular connections in trainer Steven Asmussen and owner Stonestreet Stables. Joel Rosario takes the mount. 

Velvet Sister broke her maiden by 9 3/4 lengths at Belmont Park on June 10. The one negative to point out is she beat only two other fillies in that maiden win. For what it is worth, though, the runner-up Gerrymander is a Chad Brown-trained filly who cost $375,000 as a yearling. It is possible Velvet Sister beat a decent runner.

Obviously, trusting Velvet Sister to move forward involves some guesswork since her maiden win was closer to a simulated race workout. From a visual standpoint, she moves well, though, and the right people are behind this filly. Post position 4 will be a great spot for Rosario to go to work.

Velvet Sister is the second pick, although she does need to run faster.

Then there is Happy Soul, trained by Wesley Ward.

This one has shown proven stakes talent in the afternoon with an amazing 11 1/2-length win in the Astoria Stakes at Belmont in early June. She also broke her maiden by 11 3/4 lengths in May on the same course.

If there is one concern, it is Ward. Although there are exceptions, Ward 2-year-olds start out fast at the Keeneland or Belmont before burning out later. In this case Happy Soul broke her maiden and won a stakes race by double-digit lengths already. Is it possible for that kind of momentum to continue through Saratoga?

Also consider that Happy Soul had won at 5 1/2 furlongs in June against babies, and now it is one month later, and a half-furlong longer. As time goes on, the slower developing 2-year-olds are likely to develop and eventually catch up to the fast-starting ones such as Happy Soul.

Even with those concerns, Happy Soul is the third choice in this analysis. There is not enough reason to discount this filly yet. She drew post 7 for her six-furlong debut, which is outside the other main speed.

Pretty Birdie and Eagle Express are the fourth and fifth preferences.

To touch upon Pretty Birdie, she broke her maiden at Churchill Downs on June 18 by 3 3/4 lengths, and she also won fairly easily for trainer Norm Casse. The fourth-place Verylittlecents and sixth-place Manasota Sunset both won next time, validating the quality of the June 18 race. 

However, the rail is not as easy place at Saratoga, especially not for an inexperienced 2-year-old filly. Assuming a dead rail does not wipe her out first, Pretty Birdie will still need deal with intense pressure as the inside speed.

Pretty Birdie is usable, but the rail speed in a contested pace always takes the worst of it. She would move up in this ranking if the other speed-types scratched out.

Eagle Express broke her maiden easily at Lone Star Park by five lengths on June 13. Check out the connections behind this filly. She is trained by Asmussen, ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr. and also owned by a familiar name in W. S. Farish.

Of course, the concern is that the maiden win came at Lone Star and whether that translates well into facing 2-year-old fillies at Saratoga.

Even though Eagle Express beat nothing of substance at Lone Star, she is worth a look based on the way she moves and the connections. She is a fluid runner who looks like she has potential to succeed at this track. 

For those playing a cheaper ticket in multi-race wagers, Mainstay, Velvet Sister and Happy Soul rate as the top-three picks. Spread players may include Pretty Birdie and Eagle Express.

Mainstay might be worth a win and place bet, too. Demand a price though, as she is only fair at 7-2 or longer in this difficult-to-handicap stakes field.