Belmont Oaks analysis: How to bet 2 European fillies

Not every American graded turf stakes with European invaders favors the Europeans. But in the case of the Grade 1, $700,000 Belmont Oaks on Saturday, two overseas-based fillies hold a class edge on this field. Furthermore, the Americans do not receive the benefit of Lasix in this edition.

Based on class and the Lasix ban, the Belmont Oaks falls in favor of Santa Barbara and Cirona, two fillies who each own a runner-up finish at the Group 1 level.

Santa Barbara made a strong late move in the Pretty Polly Stakes (G1) on June 27 at the Curragh. Unfortunately, Thundering Nights had enough left in the tank to match her strides and prevail at the end. 

Nevertheless, Santa Barbara left a good impression as the two 3-year-old fillies put separation on the field while battling toward the wire.

Cayenne Pepper fought well for third, 2 1/2 lengths behind Santa Barbara.

Earlier in the month, Thundering Nights had traveled to this continent for the New York Stakes (G2) on this course, where she lost by a nose to one of the top mares in Mean Mary. The New York was a Grade 2 race, but Mean Mary runs at a Grade 1 level.

As for Cayenne Pepper, her record last year shows a runner-up finish in the 2020 Pretty Polly Stakes and Irish Oaks (G1). Americans also might remember Cayenne Pepper’s disappointing 10th in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Sometimes Breeders’ Cup races act as outliers.

In other words, Santa Barbara lost to a talented filly in Thundering Nights, whose runner-up effort against Mean Mary works as a good barometer of what to expect from Santa Barbara on this soil. She also beat Cayenne Pepper, who was Group 1-placed twice last year.

Santa Barbara’s fifth-place finish in the Cazoo Oaks Stakes (G1) is forgivable, especially because Snowfall ran a freakish race to win by 16 lengths. The soft turf possibly took the starch out of Santa Barbara’s brief rally. Prior to that effort, Santa Barbara also ran fourth by only 1 1/4 lengths in the One Thousand Guineas (G1), won by Mother Earth.

Assuming Santa Barbara adjusts to this environment, she will prove tough to defeat. She is the top selection in this analysis. 

The second invader to consider wagering on is Cirona.

Cirona’s runner-up in a Group 1 came in the Prix Saint Alary (G1) on May 24 at Longchamp. Cirona almost wired the field.

But toward the end, Cirona began to get a little tired as Incarville came flying late outside.

Cirona lost by only a head to Incarville.

In Cirona’s most recent start, she could manage only a 10th by 3 1/4 lengths in the Prix de Diane Longines (G1) at Chantilly. This time, Cirona did not lead the field. Rather, Cirona traveled on the inside in mid-pack, buried in traffic.

As seen in the replay above, Cirona never had a real chance to fire in the stretch either.

With all the traffic problems of a large field, Cirona still lost by only a few lengths. She deserves a pass for the effort, especially since it was a Group 1-level race.

For Cirona’s North America debut, Jose Lezcano hops on board. Lezcano has quietly been one of the top turf riders in the country over the years, which means Cirona is in good hands as she attempts to navigate Belmont’s turf course.

In addition, trainer Christophe Ferland is not known to most Americans. For that reason alone, Cirona might offer value at the windows, unlike the more obvious Santa Barbara with Aidan O'Brien as the trainer.

Although handicapping Europeans is not an easy task, Santa Barbara is likely the best horse in the Belmont Oaks. She deserves heavy consideration in all tickets. If not Santa Barbara, then Cirona is the one. She owns speed if Lezcano wants to use it, and value bettors will probably receive a deal because of the unknown trainer.

One idea is to bet Santa Barbara to win at even money or higher, and play a straight Santa Barbara over Cirona exacta. The win bet acts as a hedge.

Use both Santa Barbara and Cirona in multi-race wagers as well.