Analysis: Use these 4 in Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland

Four horses look usable in the Grade 1, $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland on Friday. This is a race to spread with in multi-race wagers.

The first preference is Public Sector, who starts from the outside for trainer Chad Brown. Brown is typically a wizard in winning graded turf stakes races, and he brings a developing 4-year-old colt in this entry.

Public Sector beat a good turf runner in Never Surprised twice last season while winning the Saranac Stakes (G3) and Hill Prince Stakes (G2). Public Sector ended his season with a closing fourth-place finish in the Hollywood Derby (G1) at Del Mar, but the effort is forgivable. He lost by 1 1/2 lengths and still matched his typical TimeformUS figures.

Shirl’s Speight and Atone are the next ones to consider.

The former carries a two-race win streak into this race, including an impressive win in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) in early February.

Defending champion Get Smokin held an uncontested lead with reasonable fractions throughout the race. But Shirl’s Speight caught him and even widened the margin by 1 1/2 lengths to win. 

On turf, the final margins are typically compressed because of the nature of most grass races. Shirl’s Speight winning by 1 1/2 lengths is a dominant performance, especially when Get Smokin led the field uncontested.

Atone has lost his last two races. In his most recent start in January, he hung in the stretch of the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) for a fourth-place finish while losing by only 1 3/4 lengths to Colonel Liam. Even though Atone lost, that was a difficult race to win. 

Atone might enjoy the cutback to one mile in his return, as he won a one-mile Aqueduct optional claiming race in November and a one-mile allowance at Saratoga. Overall, he shows a 4: 3-0-1 record at one mile.

Plus, trainer Michael Maker puts the blinkers on Atone. In a race that is not certain to go fast, the blinkers should put him closer to the front.

Masen is the last runner to consider. This gelding makes his first start for Chad Brown after starting six times in Europe in his first two seasons. Masen has not started since last October at Leopardstown, where he won the Knockaire Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths under urging. The aggressive placement off the layoff is a positive sign.

Brown believes Masen is good enough to make his North America debut in a Grade 1 race, and he puts Flavien Prat on him. Those are two positive aspects to consider, even if Masen's form does not stand out. 

The four horses described above could make for an exacta box if the odds on Shirl’s Speight, Atone or even Masen are in the double-digit range. Otherwise, three or four single-digit horses in an exacta box probably will not pay a significant amount of money if the ticket is played.

In terms of multi-race wagers, Public Sector, Shirl’s Speight, Atone and Masen all are usable in that order of preference. If the ticket becomes too expensive, then think about cutting the unproven Masen first, even if Brown trains him.

Smooth Like Strait and Somelikeithotbrown also are consistent turf horses with early speed, but they might go just fast enough to cause each other to weaken late without causing a pace collapse. Move one of them up only if the other speed horse scratches.

The Maker’s Mark Mile is not an easy race to pinpoint one horse. The best strategy is to spread in tickets and try to find a better single elsewhere.