Analysis: Use Messier, 2 others on top in Kentucky Derby 2022

Post positions are set for the 148th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, which means now is the time to discuss some final selections. Because of the 20-horse field, the final draw does make a bigger difference than in most races. Mainly, the inside post positions are the ones to avoid.

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Here are the three final Derby picks.

With Epicenter stuck in the difficult Post 3, Messier gets the slight nod as the top selection from Post 6. He offers value odds on the morning line at 8-1.

In Messier’s lone win this year, he set a contested pace in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) before drawing clear by an incredible 15 lengths with a 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. If he repeats the 127 this week, he will win.

Jockey John Velazquez figures to use Messier’s speed in an attempt to give him the same pacesetting trip as Medina Spirit last year.

Although Messier can still run well without setting the pace, his second-place finish to Slow Down Andy in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) after pressing the pace and runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) after chasing Forbidden Kingdom indicate he is slightly better when leading the field.

Messier also gets another excuse for his runner-up finish to stablemate Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby, as he did receive a difficult task in chasing Forbidden Kingdom, while Taiba had the luxury of sitting behind them through the early stages.

With his experience, Messier has better seasoning for the Kentucky Derby, while Taiba is taking on this race in only his third career start.

The second preference is Epicenter, and he has had an excellent time on the Derby trail at Fair Grounds with wins in the Gun Runner Stakes, Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). Epicenter ran second in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) as well, and that loss is forgivable because he set a fast pace.

The great part about Epicenter is his versatility. He won the Gun Runner after pressing the pace, while the Risen Star win came with pacesetting tactics and the Louisiana Derby win was a result of sitting in the pocket.

Given his post position, Epicenter might need to sit in the pocket, or use his speed to stay out of traffic and set the pace. With 20 horses present, the main concern is that he could get shuffled back even farther out of the gate as the field tends to collapse on the inside horses heading into the first turn.

Regardless, Epicenter is too talented to ignore. His jockey Joel Rosario will need to use some creativity at the break in order to establish good position.

The third preference is Zandon, who is a surprising morning-line favorite at 3-1. Watch the board, as those morning line odds might end up incorrect.

Last December, Zandon only lost the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct by a nose to Mo Donegal. He arguably deserves an excuse for the loss, as Mo Donegal’s jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. put Zandon in tight quarters in the stretch.

To start off his campaign this year, Zandon made a closing bid for third in the Risen Star after a bad start forced him to come from behind. He lost to Epicenter by 3¼ lengths, but his task was difficult from the rear. Zandon then won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) by 2½ lengths over Smile Happy.

Perhaps jockey Flavien Prat can get more speed out of Zandon. Remember, Zandon was a stalker in his career debut last October in a six-furlong sprint, and he also made use of stalking tactics in the Remsen before losing by a nose. In 2019, Prat rode Country House and guided him to a great position at the front of the mid-pack. Country House ended up winning via disqualification.

These are the three blog selections for the win spot in the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, these are also the three horses with the lowest odds on the morning line, but again, there is a chance the morning line is not correct. For example, the oddsmaker made Taiba 12-1 after his Santa Anita Derby win?

In any case, Messier has the best chance to win, especially if Velazquez sends him hard early. Epicenter and Zandon are both not without a shot either, but Epicenter will need to establish a good position from the tricky Post 3, and Zandon must face traffic problems unless he uses more speed.