Analysis: Use these 3 horses in Gun Runner Stakes

Fair Grounds will host the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes on Sunday, a brand new Kentucky Derby prep race worth 10 points to the winner. The 1 1/16-mile dirt race drew seven entries.

Three horses are viable win candidates: Epicenter, Rocket Dawg and Surfer Dude. 

If Epicenter does not mind the rail position, he is a major threat for trainer Steve Asmussen. On TimeformUS Pace Projector, Epicenter is expected to lead. Perhaps he can use his speed to avoid early inside trouble. 

In only his second start on Nov. 13 at Churchill Downs, Epicenter broke his maiden by 3 1/2 lengths with a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He did need to work a bit in the stretch, but overall, picking up the win was a nice improvement over the fading sixth-place finish in his career debut.

Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. takes over the piloting duties from Joel Rosario on Epicenter, but the switch likely does not affect his chances.  

The main pace concern for Epicenter is Surfer Dude, who also owns enough speed to set or contest the pace. He also could sit a length off.

Epicenter and Surfer Dude contested the pace in Epicenter’s Nov. 13 maiden win. On that day, Surfer Dude lost the battle and faded to third by six lengths. But Surfer Dude might be an improved horse by now if his recent maiden win and improved figure are any indications.

Surfer Dude broke his maiden by a neck on Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs after pressing the leader Timeless Joke and outbattling the closer Kupuna in the stretch to prevail. Timeless Joke faded to 10th and lost by 12 lengths at 5-2 after Surfer Dude chased and put him away.

Surfer Dude earned a career-high 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the maiden win, giving him the same speed figure as Epicenter.

Surfer Dude is a son of Curlin out of the Tiznow mare Tiz Miz Sue, which means he was likely to develop more slowly than his peers. Tiz Miz Sue’s best career work came at the end of her career. She ran second in the 2013 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) before capturing the Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) in her final two starts.

If Epicenter and an improved Surfer Dude wear each other out, then the Brad Cox-trained Rocket Dawg is the one who can take advantage.

In his career debut, Rocket Dawg broke his maiden by 5 1/2 lengths on Nov. 19 at Churchill Downs after lagging in seventh through the opening quarter. Cox does not crank up his first-timers, which makes the margin impressive.

The stretchout from seven furlongs to a two-turn route is not a huge concern. This is a son of Classic Empire out of a Distorted Humor mare. As long as pace helps, he can move forward.

Like Epicenter and Surfer Dude, Rocket Dawg earned a 103 on TimeformUS for his maiden win.

Why is Tejano Twist ignored in these picks? In all eight starts before this race, Tejano Twist started in sprint races. If he had the physical look of a router, the connections would not have waited this long to stretch him out. Also, Tejano Twist’s dam Haley’s Lolipop made all 12 career starts in sprints.

Exacta and trifecta players might want to use Tejano Twist underneath. In terms of the win spot, though, he is more likely to flatten out than win.

Waita Minute Hayes gets some space in this analysis because he crossed the wire first in the $100k Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs over decent runners, including the fourth-place Un Ojo, before a disqualification knocked him down. In his next start, Un Ojo closed well for second by a neck in the New York Stallion Series Stakes at Aqueduct.

Note Waita Minute Hayes' third dam Weekend Surprise, the same dam of the legendary A.P. Indy. This is a family line meant for longer routes.

But the Lasix-off angle is a concern for Waita Minute Hayes. Plus, Delta Downs form does not always translate well to bigger racetracks. Like Tejano Twist, he is more usable underneath than as a win pick. 

If forced to choose a top selection, then Rocket Dawg earns the spot because of the expected confrontation between Epicenter and Surfer Dude.

But pace battles do not always develop as expected, especially if there is a bad break or a switch in jockey tactics. For that reason, Epicenter and Surfer Dude also are usable in multi-race wagers along with Rocket Dawg.

Unless Rocket Dawg drifts up off his 3-1 morning line odds, there is no win or place suggestion for this race. Surfer Dude might offer higher odds, but his form is not enticing enough right now to bet him alone. Use Rocket Dawg, Epicenter and Surfer Dude in horizontal wagers and move on.