Analysis: Trophy Chaser sits on Oaklawn Handicap breakthrough
Whichever horse wins the Grade 2, $600,000 Oaklawn Handicap on Saturday at Oaklawn Park will certainly earn the victory in a field containing more than one notable name.
No clear standouts exists, with the group including Mr Freeze, Tacitus, By My Standards and Improbable. But this is a quality group worthy of its Grade 2 status.
I've narrowed my considerations for the win spot down to three.
One contender trained by Juan Carlos Avila may slip under the radar, though. Given his form as a 4-year-old colt, Trophy Chaser is a viable option to consider on top. He now owns the right figures to win a Grade 2 race such as this one. With his tactical speed, he can also sit in a good early position.
Cross out Trophy Chaser’s 2018 and 2019 races. Although he ran well at points, such as in his neck loss in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, he did not perform consistently going short.
When Trophy Chaser returned this year on Feb. 22 in a nine-furlong Gulfstream allowance optional claimer, he coasted home by 8 ¼ lengths. Not only that, but he earned a career-high 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure, beating his previous best of 117.
Trophy Chaser then tackled the Challenger Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. After settling into the pocket position, he tipped out and took on King for a Day. The two leaders separated from the field and put on a show.
Gradually, Trophy Chaser took a slim advantage toward the finish line and won by a neck. Prevailing by a neck might not sound like a huge deal, but 11 lengths separated the two of them from the third-place Prompt.
Furthermore, King for a Day defeated the 3-year-old champion Maximum Security last year in the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park. Trophy Chaser did not out-duel any average stakes runner in the stretch run. He beat a good horse with a future.
For the Challenger win, Trophy Chaser picked up a 119 on TimeformUS, five points less than his return victory at Gulfstream. But note that the figure was adjusted down from a 122 because of the slow pace.
Trophy Chaser can save ground again in this spot, right behind Mr Freeze, Warrior’s Charge and Improbable. From there, he could tip out and get first run.
As long as he is not favored, Trophy Chaser is my top selection.
Odds and value aside, Mr Freeze in the main threat to win. This 5-year-old horse began to move forward last fall by taking the Ack Ack Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs before placing in both Keeneland's Fayette Stakes (G2) and Churchill's Clark Stakes (G1).
In 2020, Mr Freeze backed up those improved efforts when he returned in the Pegasus World Cup in January. He set the pace before giving up the lead to Mucho Gusto.
Despite fading 4 ½ lengths behind Mucho Gusto, Mr Freeze still earned a career-high 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a figure good enough to win this race.
After that race, Mucho Gusto traveled to the Middle East for the Saudi Cup. He settled for a good fourth-place finish after holding the lead briefly in mid-stretch.
Mr Freeze stayed home and cut back in distance by competing in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2). This time he pressed a fast pace as Bodexpress and Rare Form locked horns early. The quick early tempo did not bother Mr Freeze, as he put those speed horses away and drew clear in stretch run to win by three lengths over a closing Phat Man.
Mr Freeze earned a 130 on TimeformUS, another career-high figure.
According to TimeformUS' Pace Projector, Mr Freeze is expected to head to the front Saturday with Warrior’s Charge and Improbable right on his tail through fast fractions. But as a quality horse, Mr Freeze might endure it or find a way around the pace scenario by switching to stalking tactics.
For a longshot on top, one horse to consider is Combatant, who earned his first graded stakes win and fourth victory overall in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). He used stalking tactics to eventually prevail by neck over Multiplier with the favored Midcourt in third.
Combatant picked up a 121 on TimeformUS, which is competitive but not great. Not everyone considers the Big 'Cap a quality field, either. But notice the last-place finisher Two Thirty Five returned to win a local allowance optional claimer with a 115. If the worst horse could return locally with a 115 figure, Combatant can move forward off his 121.
Plus, John Sadler and Joel Rosario are a sharp combination.
Now to briefly discuss the best underneath options.
Tacitus is an obvious horse to throw use. His return effort in the Saudi Cup looks fine, as he gave a mild bid to finish fifth, 4 ¼ lengths behind Maximum Security. Given his losing streak, Tacitus feels unreliable on top. In terms of trifectas and superfectas, though, he deserves a spot.
Improbable gave an excellent effort in the Oaklawn Mile. From Post 11, he ran with the leaders while wide through a hot pace. Improbable then took the lead at the top of the stretch, he eventually giving in to the respected Tom’s d’Etat.
But does Improbable want nine furlongs? If the answer was a definite yes, he would make the top list. He drew wide again in Post 14, too.
By My Standards took the New Orleans Classic (G2) for his second win in a row since his return, earning a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Despite a slow pace, he did work hard in the stretch to get the job done, which gives some mild concern.
Out of the same race, why not take Captivating Moon as an underneath option instead? He showed an impressive late rally for second, only three lengths behind By My Standards, after the opening fractions went in a dawdling 25.43, 50.09 and 1:14.36.
Regardless, Trophy Chaser, Mr Freeze and Combatant are the best options to consider on top and in multi-race wagers. Use all three of them in the late Pick 4.