Analysis: Use Nest, Secret Oath in 2022 Kentucky Oaks

Fourteen entries make up this competitive edition of the 148th Kentucky Oaks on Friday at Churchill Downs. Last year’s superstar Echo Zulu comes into this race with a questionable return effort and the other fillies do not stand out either, which gives handicappers a puzzle. 

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There are two fillies to seriously consider for the win spot.

On paper, the better option of these two fillies is Nest, who the oddsmaker listed as the unappetizing 5-2 morning line favorite. Before losing interest though, wait and see how the real wagering plays out on Oaks day. Echo Zulu might end up as the actual favorite or co-favorite with Nest.

Nest was a good 2-year-old filly who closed for third in the Tempted Stakes at Belmont last November before winning the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) one month later. She took the latter race by a neck over Venti Valentine.

Based upon her two starts this year, Nest has taken the next step.

Nest made a splash upon return by winning the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs by six lengths in February. Last month, Nest then won the Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland by 8¼ lengths with an explosive stretch move. In the latter victory, Nest beat some decent fillies.

For example, the Ashland runner-up Cocktail Moments ran third in the Davona Dale Stakes (G2) before losing to Nest in the Ashland. Also, the fourth-place Awake At Midnyte had run second in the Santa Ynez Stakes (G2) and third in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2).

From Post 4 under Irad Ortiz Jr., Nest can settle into a great stalking position right off the leaders and strike when the time is right.

Nest is the top selection. Watch the tote board. Because Echo Zulu figures to attract money and Nest does not show any standout speed figures, a slight drift upwards in odds is likely. If Nest falls below 5-2, then she becomes overbet. 

The second best option is Secret Oath. The daughter of Arrogate exits a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn against males.

Secret Oath’s effort is worth a second watch, as she had some trouble.

Shortly after the start, Un Ojo shifted right and bumped into Secret Oath, who had no room with Ben Diesel directly on her right side.

On the backside, Secret Oath then traveled wide and attempted to circle the field from last while approaching the far turn. Secret Oath managed to reach third by the top of the stretch, but she flattened out from that point and Barber Road passed her late, as Cyberknife opened to a 2¼-length win.

Cyberknife is not the biggest threat to win the Kentucky Derby, but he is not without a small chance. The closer Barber Road has a chance to hit the bottom portion of the superfecta with a clean trip and a fast pace scenario in front of him. 

Finishing third to a good horse such as Cyberknife by about two lengths probably equals or beats winning a prep race on the Oaks trail versus fillies.

Secret Oath needs to navigate the rail position here. Give Secret Oath made an early move on the inside in the Honeybee Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn and waited for room on the far turn, the inside is not supposed to bother her. She ended up exploding in the stretch and crushing the field by 7¼ lengths.

Similar to Nest, Secret Oath’s speed figures do not stand out. But again, none of these fillies stand out on figures using TimeformUS, BRIS or Beyers.

Secret Oath is 6-1 on the morning line, which is a value price considering her resume. Either use Secret Oath alongside Nest in multi-race wagers, or think about a win and place bet on Secret Oath at 6-1 or higher.

Why is Echo Zulu ignored here? Echo Zulu’s 2-year-old record is outstanding, but this is a new year and she only barely won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) with a mediocre 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

For those who want Echo Zulu, why not take Hidden Connection instead? Hidden Connection only lost the Fair Grounds Oaks by a nose to Echo Zulu.

As for Kathleen O., there is some hype on this filly for winning the Davona Dale Stakes (G2) by two lengths and beating Goddess of Fire in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) by about the same margin. But this is a step up in class though compared to beating up on Goddess of Fire.

Echo Zulu and Kathleen O. could win, but they are unattractive value-wise. It does not seem logical for the public to leave Echo Zulu at 4-1. Expect the 2-year-old filly champion to attract more wagering attention than the oddsmaker believes. Kathleen O. might fall in odds as well. 

Nest and Secret Oath are the best options for the top spot in all wagers. Nest owns the slight edge given her Ashland effort and better post position. Regardless, consider both fillies for multi-race wagers at a minimum.