Wood Memorial analysis: Gotham duo are the best picks

Regardless of whether it offers the best quality of the three Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend, the Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct offers the best betting opportunity with two vulnerable low-priced runners.

Any time there are problems with the most popular horses in the race, it makes the other options more attractive and the race more fun to handicap.

Right off the bat, there are important flaws with the favorite Risk Taking and second choice Prevalence.

Risk Taking is light in speed figures with only a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for winning the Withers Stakes (G3) in February and 102 for breaking his maiden.

To his credit, both of those races came over nine furlongs locally, making him 2-for-2 in nine-furlong dirt races at Aqueduct. Plus, he might move forward off that 109 on TimeformUS, especially since he ran the number in early February and it is April now. Young horses mature with time. However, bettors do not get a good deal in odds on Risk Taking, despite the low numbers. 

As for Prevalence, he is 2-for-2 overall after maiden and optional claiming wins at Gulfstream. He won the former race in style by 8 1/2 lengths with little urging. With that said, he is light in figures as well with only a 102 and 105 on TimeformUS. In addition, it is unclear whether he could handle the longer nine-furlong distance, as his one-mile route win on March 11 looks worse than the flashy maiden romp at seven furlongs.

Both of those horses might win anyway, but bettors take a higher risk if the form fails to justify the low odds. It is worth the time to search elsewhere.

The best option is the third choice on the morning line, Crowded Trade. Crowded Trade exits a close second-place finish in the Gotham Stakes (G3), where he lost by a nose.

Trip-wise, Crowded Trip had little excuse other than running wide on the turn.

But his mechanics are solid. Crowded Trade switches leads at the perfect time at the top of the stretch and runs smoothly until the wire.

Weyburn fights back and outkicks Crowded Trade, which is fine. He won by a nose over Crowded Trade, not by head or neck. Weyburn also had a slow early pace to enjoy while pressing Freedom Fighter. Considering Crowded Trade made only the second start of his career in a graded stakes race and barely lost, he ran great.

Crowded Trade earned a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Against this field, that is tied for the highest TimeformUS figure with two horses.  

Also note how Capo Kane cannot keep up with the leading group in the stretch. After winning the Jerome Stakes and finishing third to Risk Taking in the Withers Stakes (G3) by five lengths, Capo Kane fell back to sixth in the Gotham and 19 1/4 lengths behind. That is a good sign for the Gotham horses in front.

The question is whether Crowded Trade can handle nine furlongs. For what it is worth, his first dam Maude S did win multiple times at 1 1/16 miles. Maude S’ damsire is Thunder Gulch, the winner of 1995 Kentucky Derby and Belmont. Crowded Trade is also a son of More Than Ready, who is another reliable route influence.

From a pedigree standpoint, Crowded Trade is set. But there is always some guesswork involved when a horse stretches from one mile to nine furlongs.

Crowded Trade is the top choice in this analysis.

Weyburn deserves a close look as well, especially since he won against Crowded Trade and sports a super pedigree for nine furlongs. His second dam is Million Gift, a Sunday Silence half-sister to the nine-time Grade 1 winning router Sky Beauty.

In retrospect, it is no surprise that Weyburn took a step forward and ran the best race of his career in the one-mile Gotham Stakes with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure after failing to break 100 in three starts as a 2-year-old at six and seven furlongs.

Weyburn faces a tough pace scenario with Candy Man Rocket, Prevalence and Market Maven liable to show early foot. Market Maven won his two races at Parx Racing by contesting the pace, making him the main speed threat.

If the pace is slower than expected, though, then Weyburn might reserve enough energy to fight off the stalking Crowded Trade in the stretch again. Despite losing the lead to Crowded Trade in the Gotham, Weyburn fought back bravely to win. The two horses might put on another show. 

Weyburn is the second preference and a worthy horse to use alongside Crowded Trade in multi-race wagers. 

From a vertical wager standpoint, the play is a simple win and place wager on Crowded Trade. He is supposed to receive a ground-saving trip. If he can handle inside dirt and the longer distance, then he will prove tough late.