Analysis: Use the outside speed horse in the Jerome

Although the $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct is not the strongest Kentucky Derby prep, it does typically offer a nice betting opportunity. This edition of the race consists of horses making their first step onto the trail and a smaller selection of entries who already show prior stakes experience.

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The race does offer a possible single in the outside speed entry Hagler, and he is not even the favorite.   

On Oct. 29 at Belmont, Hagler broke his maiden by 4 ½ lengths in his second career start. He did not beat the strongest field, although the sixth-place Perfect Flight went on to finish second by a neck to Courvoisier in a Dec. 2 Aqueduct maiden race while improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure from a 69 to 97.

For the win, Hagler earned a 103 on TimeformUS. No other horse in the field has even reached 100 in a dirt race, giving Hagler the advantage.

But there is some concern from a figure regression in his most recent start.

Hagler competed in a local allowance optional claimer on Dec. 16 and won by 1 ¼ lengths after setting the pace instead of chasing the leader this time. The problem is that the TimeformUS figure went down to only a 79.

There is an explanation. As written before on here, speed figures are difficult to use as measurements of ability when the pace is slow. In this case, Hagler set fractions of 24.40, 48.79 and 1:13.50 for the seven-furlong race. When horses go that slow early, the final time is usually slow. Therefore, the speed figure ends up slow. Even if TimeformUS does adjust for pace, it is best to use caution with slow-paced figures.

In other words, the final time and speed figure look slow, but they do not mean Hagler is now only capable of a 79 on TimeformUS.

In Hagler’s third start off the bench, the 16-day turnaround might seem like a challenge. According to TimeformUS, trainer Rudy Rodriguez wins at a 15 percent rate over the past year in the 12-20 day turnaround category.

Hagler is the top selection, although watch for possible rain the forecast. If the track is muddy or sloppy, it could make the results chaotic. 

For the second slot in exactas and trifectas, use Cooke Creek, Courvoisier and Mr Jefferson.

Cooke Creek ran second in the Nashua Stakes (G3) by 1 ½ lengths to Rockefeller in his most recent start. He also won the Rocky Run Stakes at Delaware in October by half a length after stalking through a slow pace. Although those were not strong races, this field is not great either.

Courvoisier broke his maiden locally in his fourth career start. The significant part is that his TimeformUS Speed Figure made the leap from a 87 two starts ago to a 97 in that local Dec. 2 maiden win at nine furlongs.  

The concern about Courvoisier’s jump in performance is that he might prefer longer distances. In this spot, he cuts back to a one-turn mile. Regardless, he still merits a spot in the second or third slot of tickets.

Mr Jefferson is the third horse to throw into the second slot. He faded to fourth in the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2) and lost by 10 lengths. From watching the replay though, he made a nice move to join the leaders on the second turn before fading.

In contrast to Courvoisier, Mr Jefferson might enjoy the cutback to one mile. He broke his maiden at six furlongs at Colonial Downs and won an allowance optional claiming race at Delaware at the one and one-sixteenth mile distance.     

If the prices on those three runner-up selections are too short in live wagering, Unbridled Bomber might prove a useful substitute at 8-1. In his most recent start, he closed from seventh to break his maiden in a one-mile Belmont race. As a warning though, those horses did not run well next time.  

The top selection is Hagler. His early speed and talent seem evident on paper, and he even offers some value on the morning line at 4-1. He may or may not develop into a Derby horse. For now, he can duplicate Capo Kane.  

Top selection: No. 8 Hagler (4-1)

Use in second: No. 1 Cooke Creek (5/2), No. 6 Courvoisier (5-1), No. 7 Mr Jefferson (9/2)

Bets

Win: 8

Trifecta wheel: 8 / 1,6,7 / 1,2,3,5,6,7