Lexington Stakes: Use these 3 Fair Grounds runners
Handicappers hoping for a challenge will find the Grade 3, $400,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday a hard group to pinpoint a single. The race is a mixture of horses making a last attempt for Derby points and others attempting to move up in class from allowance races.
After some thought, the most probable winner is Tawny Port.
Tawny Port shows three synthetic starts in four races, including a second-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park. He also shows a mild fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) on dirt.
From next to last, Tawny Port did well to pass horses late in a quality circuit that featured a Kentucky Derby favorite in Epicenter.
Given the depth of the 3-year-old division at Fair Grounds, closing for fifth in the Risen Star is not a bad effort at all. Tawny Port lost by 7 3/4 lengths to the winner Epicenter, but even that kind of effort might win in this spot.
The only concern is that Tawny Port does not need to win the Lexington to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby. With 40 points in tow, He can hit the board and make his way to Churchill Downs for trainer Brad Cox. But Tawny Port might outclass the field and win anyway.
Also consider We All See It, who makes his stakes company debut for trainer Eddie Keneally after seven starts in the maiden and allowance ranks.
In We All See It’s most recent start, he gave a career-best effort in winning a March 19 optional claiming race at Fair Grounds by a head over Strong Quality. For the win, TimeformUS gave We All See It a 106, which is three points higher than the 103 earned by Tawny Port in the Risen Star Stakes.
Two starts ago in a Feb. 11 Oaklawn optional claimer, We All See It threw a clunker by fading to seventh and losing by 17 1/4 lengths to Zozos. But the bad effort looks like an anomaly when considering We All See It’s 7: 2-1-2 record.
Jockey Luis Saez picks up the mount on We All See It, and he might surprise some people with another step forward. Expect him to stalk and pounce.
The third and last pick is Strava, who also exits an optional claiming race at Fair Grounds. On Feb. 19, he ran third by six lengths to Cyberknife, who went on to capture the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn two weeks ago. Strava shows a competitive 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his third to Cyberknife.
The Lexington is hard to handicap, but the field strength is not great. Strava could take a small step forward off his third in the Fair Grounds optional claimer and find himself in contention in this spot for trainer Dallas Stewart.
Not surprisingly, all three of these choices exit races at Fair Grounds. Besides Epicenter and Cyberknife, the series of 3-year-old Derby points races there also produced the Sunland Derby (G3) winner Slow Down Andy and Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner Zandon.
Why is Call Me Midnight left out of these selections? He beat Epicenter to win the Lecomte Stakes (G3) in January and ran sixth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in March. Call Me Midnight is drawn wide in Post 11 as a closer. He is liable to lose ground on the first turn, and the pace is not expected to set up for him.
If Call Me Midnight overcomes the post and wins, that is horse racing. Bettors cannot pick every horse in the race or it gets expensive. Bettors not worried about ticket costs, though, might want to include him.
Tawny Port is the first preference, followed by We All See It and Strava. Use them in multi-race wagers. Also think about using all three in an exacta box.
Exacta box: 3,8,9