Analysis: Use these Fair Grounds runners in Blue Grass Stakes

With the Kentucky Derby trail winding down in the next few weeks, it becomes easier to point out the best circuits and favor those horses in the remaining preps. For example, the Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday features three horses who are exiting Derby trail races at Fair Grounds.

Because the 3-year-old group at Fair Grounds has performed well at other courses too, it likely means the track offered quality prep races all season.

The first Fair Grounds alumni to discuss is Smile Happy, who finished second in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) in his latest start. He lost by 2 3/4 lengths to a legitimate Derby contender in Epicenter, who went on to capture the Louisiana Derby (G2) and stands on top of many Derby lists.

To Smile Happy’s credit, he cut down on the deficit slightly toward the end.

The son of Runhappy also won both of his 2021 starts in impressive fashion when he broke his maiden easily on this course by 5 1/2 lengths and made a sweeping move to capture the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs by 3 1/2 lengths. He became a 2-year-old star in only his second start.

In his second race of the new season, Smile Happy can move forward for trainer Ken McPeek. Even though McPeek has struggled with his good 3-year-olds in 2022, he can pick up a win here with his most talented colt in the barn.

Zandon also competed in the Risen Star. He finished a close third after making a wide move on the far turn, while missing second by only half a length to Smile Happy.

Last October, Zandon broke his maiden by 1 1/2 lengths at Belmont after tipping out in the stretch and finishing in a strong manner. Zandon then made his graded-stakes debut two months later in the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, and he battled Mo Donegal before losing by a nose.   

If jockey Flavien Prat can save ground on the first turn and settle three or four lengths off the leader, he might get the jump on Smile Happy.

For a more interesting price, also consider Rattle N Roll. In his most recent start, he finished a non-threatening fourth by eight lengths in the Louisiana Derby. Despite the fourth-place finish, give him credit for holding off Galt and Call Me Midnight to complete the superfecta. Rattle N Roll also shows a competitive 109 speed figure on TimeformUS.

Smile Happy and Zandon both show 108 as their top TimeformUS figure.

Rattle N Roll also won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on this course last October by an impressive 4 1/4 lengths. The quick turnaround after the Louisiana Derby is not ideal, but switching back to Keeneland might wake him up.

Why is Emmanuel left out of the final selections?

Emmanuel faded to fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) after Simplification passed him in the stretch and crossed over to the inside.

In Due Time and O Captain then passed Emmanuel for second, which was disappointing. Emmanuel traveled wide on the far turn, but note that Simplification moved wider and still finished the race powerfully.

Smile Happy might not fit the monster label yet, but he is a talented and promising colt who could reclaim the top spot among his peers soon. Expect Smile Happy to make the next step forward in his second start off the bench.  

At the same time, Smile Happy is not a slam dunk to win, and the short odds might not offer enough of a payoff for most bettors to make playing him worth it.

For multi-race wagers, Smile Happy, Zandon and Rattle N Roll are the three horses to use. Smile Happy is likely used best on top as an exacta key.

As for a win bet, check the odds on Zandon and Rattle N Roll. Zandon offers value to win at 7-2 or higher, while Rattle N Roll needs to float up to 10-1 or higher to account for his questionable form this year.  

Win: 10 (at 2-1 or higher)

Exacta wheel: 10 / 4,9

Or

Win: 4 (at 7-2 or higher)

Win/place: 9 (at 10-1 or higher)