Analysis: Who can upset Echo Zulu in Fair Grounds Oaks?

Betting the Grade 2, $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks on Saturday with a win bet or vertical wager is probably not the best idea with Echo Zulu present. The champion 2-year-old filly carries a 4-for-4 record, including a 5 1/4-length win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Echo Zulu’s odds might fall as low as 1-9, and she might justify those odds by crushing the field as she did in her first four starts.  

But there are factors consider before conceding the race.

For one, Echo Zulu returns off a 141-day layoff for a trainer who is not a wizard at bringing horses back off this kind of layoff. According to TimeformUS, Steve Asmussen has hit at a 9 percent rate during the last year out of 54 horses who came back off a 105- to 176-day layoff.

One could argue that Echo Zulu is special and that Asmussen’s layoff statistic should not matter. Sure, that is a valid argument. When Asmussen ran Untapable on the Oaks trail in 2015, she won her first two starts in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G3) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).

Another concern is the strength of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies field. In retrospect, the race has not appeared strong on paper based on the three also-ran fillies at this point who already made another start. Hidden Connection, Sequist and Desert Dawn all lost their next races.

In Desert Dawn’s case, she ended up a non-threatening fourth in her next two starts in the Starlet Stakes (G1) and Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3).

Hidden Connection inherited the lead while running on the backside during the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) after her pace rival La Crete became injured and suddenly stopped. However, Hidden Connection still faded late despite reasonable fractions. Maybe she has been overrated.  

Juvenile Fillies runner-up Juju’s Map and third-place finisher Tarabi did not make their returns yet. 

Maybe the results of the Juvenile Fillies also-rans do not matter. After all, Echo Zulu can only face the fillies who go up against her, right?

With that said, it is important to remember that some 2-year-olds dominate in the early graded-stakes races by progressing faster than their peers. In addition, many connections of talented 2-year-olds end up hesitating to aim for the Breeders’ Cup because they want to develop their horse along a slower path and prepare them to peak in the spring.

If an upset happens, one filly with a chance to beat Echo Zulu is Favor.

Favor shows a 2-for-3 record for trainer Todd Pletcher. The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile broke her maiden on Jan. 9 by 3 3/4 lengths on the stretchout to one mile at Gulfstream, although she drifted out a bit late.

In her next start in a Feb. 6 Gulfstream optional claiming race, Favor won in a more professional manner by 4 1/4 lengths with a 97 on TimeformUS.

Favor’s 97 puts her ahead of Turnerloose’s 95 for winning the Rachel Alexandra, but she is well below Echo Zulu’s 114 in the Breeders’ Cup.

Echo Zulu’s TimeformUS figures put her on another level. But speed figures are not the final word in handicapping. Rather, they are one factor to consider along with overall form, class, pace scenario and video replays. There is a danger in only taking the high number. 

In multi-race wagers, Favor deserves a spot alongside Echo Zulu.

If this race is played with a win bet, Favor is the better selection. Bettors who like to play against bridgejumpers might also consider a show bet on Favor if the show pool money on Echo Zulu becomes insanely high.

For a win bet, Favor probably needs to start at her morning-line odds of 8-1 or higher for fair value. Favor still lacks important stakes experience, which means bettors need to demand some kind of price. 

If the odds on Favor do not look favorable enough, then just sit back and watch the race instead of betting. Not every stakes race is a playable one.

Win: 3 (at 8-1 or higher)

Show: 3 (if more than $200k is bet on Echo Zulu to show)