Analysis: Upset Suburban winner is live in Jockey Club Gold Cup

Even with only six horses, analyzing the Grade 1, $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga on Saturday provides quite the challenge for handicappers. The three lowest prices in the field show flaws, one horse suffers from “seconditis,” and the remaining two horses do not appear fast enough to contend for the win in this historic race.

The morning line favorite is Forza Di Oro. This 4-year-old colt lacks Grade 1 experience and seems fragile with multiple layoffs and only six career starts.

Regardless, he enters in sharp form after winning a local optional claiming race by three lengths on July 21. The runner-up in that race, West Will Power, went on to finish second by 2 ½ lengths to Code of Honor in the Philip H. Iselin Stakes (G3).

Last year, Forza Di Oro won an October allowance race at Belmont and the Discovery Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct a month later. In the latter race, he won by 3 3/4 lengths over some decent horses including Monday Morning Qb and Shared Sense.

This is a talented runner. However, Forza Di Oro makes his first career start without Lasix, and that is typically not a great angle for betting. Is he the same without Lasix? That is possible. But in many cases, Lasix does lead to horses running faster.

Even though this is not the strongest edition of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Forza Di Oro still needs to step up in class, without Lasix, and prove he belongs in Grade 1 company.

At 7/2 or 4-1 odds, Forza Di Oro might look attractive. At 8/5, he is underlaid.

How about the morning line second choice Happy Saver?

In only the fourth start of his career, Happy Saver won this race last year when it was held at Belmont Park in October. In his two starts before winning the JCGC, Happy Saver won the rescheduled Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico and also took a nine-furlong allowance race at Saratoga, giving him important experience at this racetrack.

This year, Happy Saver has been a bit flat, but he might deserve another shot.

Even though he won his return race at Belmont on May 28, he only won by a length against moderate competition with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is a slow figure for a Grade 1-level horse. Granted, the first start off the bench is always forgivable.

In Happy Saver’s second 2021 start though, he ran fourth for nearly the entire race in the Suburban Stakes (G2) at Belmont, before finally nabbing third at the end and losing by 2 ¾ lengths to the upset winner Max Player, who is entered in this field.

Happy Saver did improve to a 119 figure on TimeformUS. But, he never did pose a threat to the leaders at any point, although maybe the wide trip was the cause of the dull-looking effort. He ran on slop for the first time in his career in the Suburban, and that possibly affected his run. Also, Happy Saver made his first start without Lasix as well. Can he win without it?

Given he makes his third start off the bench, won this race last October and owns experience at Saratoga, Happy Saver is playable as a backup in horizontals. But, there are questions. Backing Happy Saver with confidence is difficult off his Suburban effort and 9/5 seems a bit short.

The last horse to discuss in detail is Max Player. As stated above, he upset the Suburban Stakes field to win by a neck at 11-1 over Mystic Guide in second.

His earlier starts this year were not great, but there were excuses. He made his first start off the bench in the Saudi Cup in February, and that was asking a lot of him given the layoff. Then in the Pimlico Special (G3) in May, he was handed a poor scenario when Last Judgment led the field uncontested with moderate fractions on a biased track.

Last year, Max Player was always on the edge of being one of the top 3-year-old horses. After winning the Withers Stakes (G3) in February, he went on the shelf and came back with third-place finishes in the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes (G1), before fifth-place finishes in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

Sometimes horses need more time before they can put their talent together and start winning races. As an experienced 4-year-old colt, maybe Max Player is now ready to start contending for the top slot in all the important Grade 1 dirt routes for older horses.

As an added positive to his Suburban win, Max Player was able to lay close to the pacesetter Moretti in the early stages rather than lag behind the field as a closer, which displays his versatility in running style. He also won the race without Lasix, which is important given Forza Di Oro and Happy Saver are winless without Lasix right now.

Did the sloppy track aid Max Player? It would not make sense to call Max Player a mud or slop specialist, given he won the Withers Stakes as a 3-year-old over fast dirt. His closing fifth in the Kentucky Derby also resulted in a 119 figure on TimeformUS, which is only one point off his 120 for winning the Suburban Stakes.  

Even though the 11-1 odds in the Suburban are gone, the 5/2 morning line on Max Player is not necessarily unfair. With some luck, he might even float to 3-1 or 7/2.

Max Player is the top selection. Despite his win in the Suburban over Happy Saver in fourth, the public does not fully respect Max Player yet, which gives him value.

For multi-race wagers, Max Player and Happy Saver are the right horses.

Win and Place bettors should consider Max Player at 4-1 or higher. The second bet is to key Max Player on top in an exacta wheel over Chess Chief and Forewarned, and the third bet is to play Max Player in a straight exacta with Night Ops for more money.