Analysis: Ulele could steal Saratoga's Alabama Stakes

The Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes starts with 8-5 morning line favorite Dunbar Road, while Point of Honor is listed at 5-2. But it is possible both fillies can be defeated in the scenario presented Saturday at Saratoga.

On paper, the race contains almost no pace. The TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a moderate tempo, but there is only one filly with the speed to secure the lead in Ulele. If needed, she can press or stalk closely too.

Because a quality speed horse on a comfortable lead is an ideal perfect scenario, Ulele is the selection here. Even if she receives some pressure from another classy contender, Lady Apple, the pace will go moderate at best in the 1 1/4-mile feature.

To illustrate Ulele's "quality," in seven starts entering Saturday, this filly hit the board six times. Even though she lost her first two races, those were sprints. When Ulele stretched out to a two-turn route in her third start, she won.

Ulele then ran a flat race on Feb. 17 trying to catch the speedy Motion Emotion in an Oaklawn Park optional claimer. She made a moderate move on the turn and faded back to third by 9 ¼ lengths after Off Topic passed her.

But if running third is Ulele's "bad race," I'll take it. Ulele rebounded by winning a Keeneland optional claimer by 1 ¾ lengths on the lead.

Afterward, she ran a strong second by a half-length to Point of Honor in Pimlico's Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2).

It is clear Point of Honor endured a wide trip in the Black-Eyed Susan on both turns while Ulele saved ground in a pocket position.

But what is to stop the same scenario happening in the Alabama? The only difference here is that Ulele will hit the lead as she saves ground on the first turn rather than sit behind.

In Ulele's next race, she set the pace in the Iowa Oaks (G3) and got out-dueled in the stretch by Lady Apple, losing by a half-length as well. But Ulele never gave up in the stretch and finished 8 ½ lengths ahead of the third-place Taylor's Spirit. The race deserves a watch if you're playing the Alabama.

Lady Apple is not the choice in this race because of distance questions related to her pedigree -- and note that none of these runners have gone 10 furlongs yet. On the bottom side, her family is geared for sprinting. Unlike Ulele, Lady Apple broke her maiden sprinting six furlongs, and ran some competitive races as a 2-year-old filly in shorter sprints.

In contrast, Ulele's second dam, Tortuga Lady, is a full sister to Invisible Ink, the 2001 Kentucky Derby runner-up. Candy Ride on top helps, too.

The feeling is that Ulele will stick around at the top of the stretch to fight, while Lady Apple will gradually fade due to a hike in distance.

Her ability to fend off Dunbar Road and Point of Honor remains a question, but at 8-1 on the morning line, the price is right.

Dunbar Road overcame a slow pace to win the Mother Goose as the leader Classic Fit slugged her way through the opening fractions in 24.34 and 49.13. Once Dunbar Road had a clear path in the lane, she coasted.

Also, Dunbar Road won a Belmont allowance race by 5 ½ lengths with a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the second highest number in the field.

Point of Honor won the Black-Eyed Susan and also finished a strong second in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) to Guarana on this course.

Once again, Point of Honor went wide on both turns. Perhaps she wants to go wide in the clear, as some horses thrive on that sort of trip. 

Guarana needed some heavy encouragement in the stretch, while Point of Honor crept closer towards the end. Subsequently, Point of Honor earned the type respect from bettors that could make her the favorite Saturday.

Therefore, Ulele is the best choice given her expected value, along with her overall ability and style. The point of betting a value-based horse is to choose one not far off favorites in ability, or even equal to them.

It is clear the public will go for Dunbar Road and Point of Honor, and Ulele's ability is close to both of them, as evidenced by the Black-Eyed Susan.

What about the rest of the field?

• Afleet Destiny might complete the superfecta, but cannot win.

• Champagne Anyone defeated Dunbar Road and Point of Honor in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) with a speed bias helping her. In the Coaching Club American Oaks, she finished a flat fourth. Limit her underneath.

• Street Band ran the best TimeformUS figure of her career in winning the Indiana Oaks (G3) with a 112. But it sounds too good to be true.

• Off Topic ran third in the Coaching Club American Oaks, only 2 ¾ lengths behind Guarana. She also receives the underneath designation.

• Kelsey's Cross needs to prove herself on dirt. She is a difficult wild card.

If Ulele finds a way to steal this race up front, in all likelihood either Dunbar Road or Point of Honor will finish second at short odds. Constructing a bet this early is not always easy without seeing the odds and exacta payoffs.

To keep it simple, I'll make a win/place bet on Ulele. Even if she fights and loses, she will probably find a way to keep second and refund the wager if off at 5-1 or higher.