Sanford analysis: 2 value closers for a fast-paced race

Given the high chance of a fast pace in the Grade 3, $175,000 Sanford Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga, the race opens itself up to either a mid-pack or deep closer who can take advantage and post a win at value odds.

Before listing the value picks, let's look at the speed horses who are entered.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Curly Jack and Andiamo a Firenze could end up battling each other on the lead through a red-labeled pace scenario. Following the speedy duo in the projection graphic are Mo Strike, Prove Right and I’m Wide Awake.

In addition, Roman Giant and Puttheblameonme might show more speed than Pace Projector believes. Roman Giant set the pace in his June 30 maiden win at Churchill Downs. Puttheblameonme did not initially hold on the lead in his career debut at Parx Racing, but he soon rushed up there.

The pace seems set up to run fast, or moderately fast at a minimum.

Now to discuss the two value-priced closers.

The more reliable option is the Todd Pletcher-trained Major Dude. In his career debut at Monmouth, Major Dude settled into fourth in the early stages and traveled behind a wall of horses entering the turn. In a sign of professionalism, he waited patiently for an opening without fighting.

When the timing became right, Major Dude moved between horses and took the lead in the stretch.

Major Dude broke his maiden by a respectable 3 3/4 lengths with a 79 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The average speed figure might end up scaring some bettors away, but the first race acts as a learning experience for most horses.

Some bettors may also stay away from Major Dude because he broke his maiden at Monmouth. In this Grade 3 at the high-class Saratoga, most of them want to know their horse competed at a top-tier racetrack. Yet, Pletcher made this same Monmouth-to-Saratoga move before with 2-year-olds in the past and found success. He uses Monmouth to build the confidence of his 2-year-olds by giving them an easier race to win. 

The other value-priced closer is the Rudy Rodriguez-trained Valenzan Day, who broke his maiden in May at Belmont by 2 1/4 lengths over a speedy Wesley Ward-trained colt named Ever a Rebel. Ever a Rebel had 13 lengths on the third-place horse, which is a good sign.

In his next start, Valenzan Day had traffic issues in the Tremont Stakes before closing on the outside for a respectable third-place finish. The replay deserves a look, as Valenzan Day made up significant ground on the leaders near the wire, which indicates he had plenty of run left.

Even with the troubled trip, Valenzan Day still posted an 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure while losing by only 3 1/4 lengths. Given he is not trained by Pletcher, Valenzan Day might offer more value than Major Dude.

The downside to taking Valenzan Day is the wide post, although in a one-turn race it might not matter. Valenzan Day could end up with a wide trip heading into the turn, but as suggested above, he also gets a fast pace to help him out. Perhaps he can circle the leaders on the turn.

Neither of these two closers own the highest speed figure using TimeformUS, but those numbers might not matter as much in these baby 2-year-old stakes races. As long as the main pace players remain in the race, Major Dude and Valenzan Day are major contenders to win.