Analysis: 2 horses who can upset Essential Quality in Travers

Considering the expected low odds for the favorite Essential Quality in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga, it makes sense to explore other options for the top slot.

No matter what, Essential Quality is a must-use in longer horizontal plays, but his popularity likely will create good betting opportunities on other entries whether they win or lose.

Last month, the blog choice Keepmeinmind put up a brave fight to lose by only half a length to Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). While Keepmeinmind is supposed to enter the Travers too, it is time to move on.

Based on the probables list, the two most likely upsetters are Dynamic One and King Fury. Both runners are capable of hitting a new peak this weekend, and with some luck, either of them can beat Essential Quality.

In his most recent start, Dynamic One won the local 1 1/8-mile Curlin Stakes in a faster time than Essential Quality won the Jim Dandy a day later.

In fairness, it is not a good idea to compare raw times on different days, but Dynamic One won his race on a good track, while Essential Quality won the Jim Dandy on a fast track. A faster time is arguably more difficult on a good dirt track because of the extra moisture in the surface.

Dynamic One also won the Curlin by 1 3/4 lengths over Miles D, with another seven lengths back to First Captain in third.

Watch as Dynamic One outkicks Miles D in the stretch.

The long margin back to First Captain in third is a good sign of a fast race, as well as the 24 lengths separating the first and last-place finishers.

Handicappers can cross out Dynamic One’s effort in the Kentucky Derby. For horses still in the developing process, the Derby acts as an outlier. Before that race, Dynamic One ran second by a head in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct. He also broke his maiden in a nine-furlong race in March, which shows this long-winded colt is meant for longer routes. The stretchout to 10 furlongs in the Travers is supposed to help him.

As a last point, Dynamic One has been working well. In an Aug. 13 work in company with Dr. Jack, he blew away his workmate toward the finish line. For those interested in watching, the workout is available on XBTV.

The one drawback is that Dynamic One does need pace. Regardless, in all likelihood Dynamic One is the top Travers pick for this blog. Given his closing style, the post position will not matter.  

Another runner who could peak at the right time is King Fury.

In his most recent start, King Fury gave a bad effort in the Saratoga Derby (G1) earlier this month on turf. He made no impact in his grass debut and eventually was a well-beaten 10th and 8 1/2 lengths behind the upset winner State of Rest at the end. Cross out the race, as turf form is not supposed to count when analyzing dirt races.  

When King Fury made his return off the bench in April, he had Kentucky Derby watchers talking with a 2 3/4-length win in the Lexington Stakes (G3) over the sloppy dirt.

King Fury did not participate in any of the Triple Crown races, though. Rather, he took two more months before making his second start of the year in the Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown. Despite another strong rally, this time King Fury lost by half a length to the improving Masqueparade. But King Fury did finish a nose in front of Keepmeinmind.

After two solid dirt efforts that match, maybe this is the time for King Fury to take the next step forward as a developing 3-year-old son of Curlin. The case for King Fury is more difficult to make than the one for Dynamic One, but believers will get higher odds. A better price is supposed to compensate for the shortcomings on paper.

As with Dynamic One, though, King Fury will need at least some pace. Where will the pace for Dynamic One and King Fury come from?

Midnight Bourbon appears certain to flash his usual speed again. He needs company up front to weaken him and give the closers a chance, and Masqueparade owns enough speed to keep him honest. Otherwise, Dynamic One and King Fury might need to sit closer earlier than usual.

With all that said, yes, Essential Quality could win. In most races, there is not only one outcome possible. Usually, a few outcomes are possible and the bettor needs to decide whether the odds on the best horse make him worth betting on or if taking a chance on a less likely result with higher odds makes the others worth playing.

Essential Quality is clearly the best horse on paper in terms of accomplishments. He still won the Jim Dandy Stakes, even if by a small margin. He also won the Belmont Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes (G2) in the spring, as well as the Southwest Stakes (G3) in February.

Perhaps Essential Quality can even become special if he takes the Travers and goes on to capture the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar as only a 3-year-old. In the immediate moment, though, he needs to clear the Travers hurdle and the extremely low odds on him after such a narrow win in the Jim Dandy make the colt a questionable gamble.

Even though the Travers post draw is not set as of this writing, Dynamic One and King Fury are the most exciting horses in the race in terms of odds relative to their ability and potential to move forward. With at least a moderate pace, either closer can upset Essential Quality.