Silverbulletday analysis: Here are two fillies to consider

For the most part, horses making the switch from synthetic to dirt are best viewed with skepticism on this blog, unless there is proven dirt form. But this analysis is an exception.

In the $150,000 Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Souper Sensational enters with two wins in two synthetic starts and no dirt attempts. Yet, she offers enough promise talent-wise and owns the right pedigree. Souper Sensational is the first filly to discuss below. 

Trained by Mark Casse, Souper Sensational broke her maiden on Sept. 26 at Woodbine, winning by 2 1/2 lengths after settling in the pocket and switching out on the turn. She gave a powerful kick in the stretch run to pass Speightstown Shirl and cruise under a hand ride.

The interesting part is that a significant 9 3/4 lengths came between Speightstown Shirl and the third-place Diamond Ore, with another 5 1/4 lengths to Northern Cross in fourth. Long, spaced-out margins are less common in turf and synthetic racing.

Then in the Glorious Song Stakes on Oct. 17, Souper Sensational set the pace before drawing clear in the stretch under a hand ride again. 

This time, Souper Sensational won by a clear four lengths, although the field did not fracture. 

Both wins came at seven furlongs at Woodbine, with Souper Sensational earning a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the maiden race and a 101 in the Glorious Song. As a note about the 101, the figure was adjusted down from 107 by TimeformUS because of the slow pace. But that arguably means she is capable of a 107 figure, as that is the unadjusted number.  

It is clear that Souper Sensational possesses raw talent on synthetic. She needs the right pedigree to give her a chance on the surface switch.

Souper Sensational is sired by Curlin, which is not a problem. On the bottom, her dam Kateri is a half-sister to two interesting names in Tiz Miz Sue and Bulletin.

The latter competed as a turf sprinter and captured the 2018 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, but to counter that, Tiz Miz Sue won the 2013 Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) at 1 1/16 miles on dirt to end her career on a high note. One race before the Ogden Phipps victory, Tiz Miz Sue also ran a close second in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1).

Considering this is not a strong field, it makes sense to take a chance on Souper Sensational. If she makes the transition, she could develop into a star in the somewhat weak 3-year-old filly division.  

Only one other filly is interesting in this race.

On the outside, Sun Path makes her fourth career start after breaking her maiden at Churchill Downs last November and winning a local allowance race one month later.

In the seven-furlong maiden race, Sun Path traveled in mid-pack before mounting a winning bid and drawing clear by three lengths. She earned a 92 on TimeformUS.

When stretching out to one mile and 70 yards on this course, Sun Path pressed the pace before taking over and drawing clear by an impressive 12 3/4 lengths. She also improved her TimeformUS figure to 100, giving Sun Path the high dirt speed figure, at least on that scale.

Given Sun Path owns the high TimeformUS dirt figure and shows successful experience over this course, she deserves consideration.

With that said, starting in Post 9 is a minor drawback to think about. Jockey Florent Geroux needs to make sure Sun Path clears most of the field.

Also, the three fillies Sun Path beat in that Dec. 18 allowance are not great. Rock Star Parking had run ninth in a Churchill Downs maiden race and broke her maiden in a high-priced $150,000 claimer over the same course before tackling Sun Path at Fair Grounds and finishing a distant second. 

But as stated, Sun Path shows a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure and beat the field by over 12 lengths, possibly making the field quality irrelevant. Trainer Brad Cox helps too. TimeformUS gives Cox a 100 rating at Fair Grounds, as well as a 100 rating in combination with Florent Geroux.

Souper Sensational and Sun Path are the two horses to use in multi-race wagers.

As for which filly is the better win or place bet, watch the odds. The public might hesitate to back a synthetic horse, making Souper Sensational the more likely candidate to offer value. Then again, Sun Path is stirring up quite the conversation on her own Horse Racing Nation page.

If the odds seem low, just use Souper Sensational and Sun Path in the Pick 4 and move on.