Analysis: 2 Casse entries offer value in Queen's Plate

Eleven Canadian-bred 3-year-olds are lined up for the historic US$769,914 Queen’s Plate at Woodbine Racetrack on Sunday. Similar to the Kentucky Derby, the race is run at the classic 1 1/4-mile distance. But unlike Churchill Downs, the horses must run over the synthetic Tapeta surface.

Ten of the 11 entries exit a local synthetic race, which makes the handicapping job slightly easier. The lone entry not to exit a local synthetic race competed in a local turf race last time and showed past synthetic experience.

Because of the expected fast pace, the Mark Casse-trained runners exiting the Plate Trial Stakes look like interesting value-priced options. 

From post 9, Sir for Sure can settle into a great position as a mid-pack closer. He won the Plate Trial Stakes with a sweeping move on the outside while pulling clear from his stablemate Hall of Dreams in the stretch run.

From a visual standpoint, Sir for Sure looks great in the stretch.  

Even though Sir for Sure did not earn a super speed figure for the Plate Trial with only a 103 on TimeformUS, he did not receive a fast pace to close into either with initial fractions of 24.07 seconds, 48.54 seconds and 1:12.62. The son of Sligo Bay finished the nine furlongs in 1:50.62. Those fractions might explain the slower time and speed figure.

A few races later on the card, Moira won the Woodbine Oaks in 1:49.78, but she also had faster fractions of 23.54 seconds, 47.34 seconds and 1:11.78 to close into.

Sir for Sure now needs to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles. From glancing at his past races, he lost all three sprint attempts and only broke his maiden when stretched out to one mile and 70 yards on Gulfstream Park's new synthetic surface. The fact that he his two wins came in route races is a great sign, as true long routers tend to struggle at less than one mile.

Otherwise, Sir for Sure is supposed to handle the stretchout just by watching his Plate Trial win. He did not look tired towards the finish line.

Hall of Dreams ended up two lengths behind Sir for Sure in the Plate Trial. On the stretch-out to 10 furlongs though, there is a chance he moves up.

This gelded son of Lemon Drop Kid could not even break his maiden until his sixth start when Casse decided to stretch him out to nine furlongs in June. Then in his stakes debut one month later at the same distance, he ran second to Hall of Dreams in the Plate Trial. This is an improving closer who might love the extra distance.

The only downside is that Hall of Dreams does not own as much tactical speed as Sir for Sure. Hall of Dreams looks more likely to close from the back of the field or near that area, rather than from the mid-pack range.

There are some familiar owners behind Hall of Dreams, such as Gary Barber and Wachtel Stable. Patrick Husbands takes the mount too. According on TimeformUS, the Casse and Husbands combination is “hot.”

At double-digit odds, maybe Hall of Dreams is worth a swing. At a minimum, this deep closer deserves a slot in longer horizontal tickets along with Sir for Sure and Moira.  

Moira is the expected favorite and another fellow closer. As described above, she won the Woodbine Oaks in a fast time and she might settle in the same area as Sir for Sure in this spot. But again, maybe the faster time in the Woodbine Oaks was a product of a pace setup that helped the final time.

Even though Moira is useful in multi-race wagers, expect a low price, especially with many racing fans rooting for the filly to beat males.

Synthetic racing is never easy to handicap and chaos can happen more frequently. Regardless, those are three runners to consider in the Queen’s Plate.

Coverage of the Queen's Plate at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by Woodbine.