Analysis: Turned Aside can turn tables in Quick Call Stakes
At first glance, top 3-year-old turf sprinter Jack and Noah is hard to topple in the Grade 3, $100,000 Quick Call Stakes at Saratoga on Friday. The son of Bated Breath already beat the main contenders in his last start, and he only shortens up slightly to 5 1/2 furlongs on turf now. Based on form only, he is supposed to win against this field.
However, there is a concern in his trainer, Mark Casse, who started the Saratoga meet 0 for 5 in its first four days. Perhaps the poor start is an anomaly and he recovers with a capable horse such as Jack and Noah in this spot. But it is a good idea to look at those five starts anyway.
Casse started three horses on opening day, including the heavy favorite Beautiful Memories and Make Mischief in the Schuylerville Stakes (G3). Beautiful Memories started slow and eventually was pulled up by Jose Ortiz.
Three days later, Casse lost with his only two Sunday starters at Saratoga, finishing seventh with Our Flash Drive in a maiden special weight and seventh with Lashara in the Lake Placid Stakes (G2).
Why is Beautiful Memories’ effort relevant? It shows that Casse could lose with a good horse that is low-priced. The streak is not just a coincidence of bad horses.
Then again, Jack and Noah is more reliable as an experienced 3-year-old turf sprinter. This colt sports a 6-3-1-0 record and makes his third start of 2020.
In his season debut at Churchill Downs on May 17, Jack and Noah set the pace in a 5 1/2-furlong turf allowance race before getting challenged by Chimney Rock and losing by a head. The result is kind of disappointing, but perhaps he needed one off the layoff.
One month later at Belmont Park, Jack and Noah stretched out to six furlongs in the Sir Cat Stakes. Once again, he set the pace uncontested.
This time he did not give up the lead, holding off the pace tracker Turned Aside and a late-closing Old Chestnut in third.
Both Turned Aside and Old Chestnut show up again in this spot.
Speaking of Turned Aside, Jack and Noah beat him twice last year too.
The first time came in a Sept. 27 maiden race at Belmont, where Jack and Noah won by 1 1/4 lengths over Turned Aside after tracking the pacesetting Turned Aside in second early on. Then in the Nov. 9 Atlantic Beach Stakes at Aqueduct, Jack and Noah flashed his usual pacesetting tactics and won, while Turned Aside surprisingly faded late to seventh.
Yet, Turned Aside is the choice in this analysis, or at least a horse to think about using alongside. Why would the results reverse this time?
For one, Turned Aside’s trainer, Linda Rice, is more reliable at Saratoga than Casse. She began the meet with four wins. Also, TimeformUS gives Rice an 88 (out of 100) rating at Saratoga and only a 56 for Casse.
Rice’s numbers are also hot overall over the last year. According to TimeformUS, she has won 20 percent of the time out of 524 attempts, and hit the top three in over half those starts. When paired with jockey Jose Lezcano, the combination has won 23 percent of the time out of 228 starters, and hit the top three over half the time as well. She is consistent.
In terms of the actual race setup, perhaps Turned Aside gets some pace help this time from High Cruise on the rail or Fore Left in Post 5. Both of them own enough speed to contest Jack and Noah on the lead.
Turned Aside drew the outside post, and that is favorable because it gives him options. If High Cruise and Fore Left flash their speed along with Jack and Noah, he could settle right behind them and relax.
Plus, Turned Aside is making his second start of the year, and horses move forward in their second or third start off the layoff.
With all that said, it is not an easy task. But it is possible for Turned Aside to turn the tables here. Stranger results happen in racing.
For those searching for a higher price, Jack and Noah’s stablemate Old Chestnut is a fringe contender. As a 2-year-old, he was a better horse at Woodbine when flashing speed. But now Old Chestnut is a late closer subject to traffic problems.
Although Casse trains Old Chestnut, at least the public gets a price.
Flap Jack is also a remote possibility in his return to turf. With so many dirt races in his recent form, though, it feels safer to watch how he performs. If he must be used, then toss him in the underneath slots.
In any case, Turned Aside is the choice based on his sharp trainer, versatile running style and the fact he makes his second start off the bench. But if Jack and Noah wins again for the fourth time with Turned Aside present, it will come as no surprise either, even with Casse’s cold start. At a minimum, use both horses in multi-race wagers.