Analysis: Tom's d'Etat acceptable at short odds in the Oaklawn Mile

Despite his advanced age for a racehorse, Tom's d'Etat remains a high-level performer. Throughout a campaign including seven starts in 2019, he only missed the trifecta twice and superfecta once. He also picked up three stakes wins, with two of them graded.

Now a 7-year-old horse, Tom's d'Etat enters the $150,000 Oaklawn Mile on Saturday at Oaklawn Park as the 3-1 favorite. His sharp form at the end of last year may provide enough evidence to accept even a lower price, especially considering who he beat.

Tom's d'Etat's only real clunker last year came in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in January, when he finished a dismal ninth, 27 ¼ lengths behind City of Light. The effort is forgivable because such high-level Grade 1 races such as the Pegasus World Cup, Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic act as outliers on many quality horses' past performances.

Afterward, Tom's d'Etat took a break and recovered. He returned in the Alysheba Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs on May 3, finishing a good second to McKinzie after contesting the early pace. One start later on June 15, he turned in the same performance in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2), finishing third after contesting the pace with Quip.

Over a month later, he picked up a win in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga. The effort prompted a try in the Woodward Stakes (G1), where he ran fourth. But he only lost by 1 ¾ lengths to Preservationist, who won the Suburban Stakes (G2) a few months earlier. Also, the fifth-place Mongolian Groom won the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) in his next start.

Then, Tom's d'Etat won the Fayette Stakes (G2) at Keeneland by 4 ¼ lengths after pressing the pace, earning a lofty 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process.

Mr Freeze held second by a comfortable 3 ¼ lengths over Bal Harbour in third.

Finally, Tom's d'Etat closed out his 2019 campaign in style, winning the Clark Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs by 3 ¼ lengths, once again defeating Mr Freeze in third place. He also defeated the runner-up Owendale, who previously won the Oklahoma Derby (G3).

Mr Freeze proves the quality of those two races given he went on to finish runner-up to Mucho Gusto in the Pegasus World Cup with a career-best 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure and also capture the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) by three lengths with a 130. Mr Freeze has developed nicely and could become a leading Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile contender.

As for concerns about the layoff, Tom's d'Etat shows a history of firing off the bench. There are three layoff lines in his past performances, and he won his first start back twice and ran second the other time. He also has worked eight times since the start of February. Win or lose, it is more likely that Tom's d'Etat is coming into this race prepared.

The last reason to side with Tom's d'Etat, besides class and his ability to fire fresh, is the projected pace scenario. According to TimeformUS, a hot pace is brewing with Home Run Trick, Slick Silver, Mr. Money and Pioneer Spirit all capable of contesting the lead. Right behind them are more speed types in Snapper Sinclair, Long Range Toddy and Kershaw.

Tom's d'Etat owns a 106 Late Pace Rating on TimeformUS. The highest number in the field belongs to Bankit, who TimeformUS gives a 112 Late Pace Rating.

Even if Tom's d'Etat gets bet to 2-1, or even 8/5, that is fair. He holds more than one advantage in this race, making him a legitimate favorite.

Speaking of Bankit, bettors may want to give him a look if the track stays reasonably dry, at least for an underneath position. In the Essex Handicap on this course, he did not handle the slop well and faded to seventh and last after ranging up on the outside.

In Bankit's only other try on slop, he finished a dismal fifth by 13 ½ lengths in the 2019 New York Stallion Stakes. Bettors made him 3-1, and he burned money that day.

Prior to the Essex flop on wet dirt, Bankit closed for a strong second in the Razorback Handicap (G3), only losing by a head to the talented Warrior's Charge. Back in January, he also closed for second in the Fifth Season Stakes, losing by a head to Pioneer Spirit.

To warn bettors, though, trainer Steve Asmussen has been on a terrible losing streak recently, going 0 for his last 44 at Oaklawn since March 27 (as of this writing). For those who believe Asmussen can get back on track, Bankit can contend on fast or good dirt. At least, he deserves a spot underneath Tom's d'Etat to spice up the exotics tickets.

What about Mr. Money? It looks like the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile exposed him slightly, as he faded to seventh. Last summer, he was strong in Midwest races such as the Indiana Derby (G3) and West Virginia Derby (G3) because he competed against lesser stock.

But Mr. Money does own nice tactical speed, which is always a dangerous asset. If he moves forward as a 4-year-old, he can contend.

To touch upon Improbable, he lasted a bit longer than Mr. Money from roughly the same stalking position in the Dirt Mile and faded a bit to fifth. He could fire off the bench too for trainer Bob Baffert, but Post 14 is a difficult position in a two-turn mile.

Given he will start anywhere from 8/5 to 3-1, Tom's d'Etat is not the most exciting option. But those odds are deserved because he always fires in races not named the Pegasus World Cup. He draws well enough in Post 3. As long as old age has not caught up, he will prove tough to beat.