Analysis: Taiba owns perfect style for Haskell pace scenario

One of the names gathering steam in social media discussions about the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes is Taiba, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner who makes the fourth start of his career on Saturday at Monmouth. After two races under Tim Yakteen, Taiba now runs for Bob Baffert again.

Baffert has won the Haskell with various types of 3-year-olds, including the pacesetter Bayern in 2014 and the closer Coil in 2011. From Taiba’s few starts to this point, minus the outlier Kentucky Derby line, it seems Taiba wants to press or stalk the pace if it ends up too fast.

In his Santa Anita Derby, Taiba chose to settle a few lengths behind the dueling leaders Forbidden Kingdom and Messier. Messier still had more life left in the stretch run, but Taiba eventually took over late for the win.

When Taiba broke his maiden in March, he was a presser before taking over and blowing the field away by 7 1/2 lengths in an excellent debut.

From studying the probables list and mapping out the likely fast pace scenario, Taiba might end up in the stalking position for the Haskell.

Who could run in front of Taiba?

Obviously, Jack Christopher owns plenty of speed. In one-mile races or less, Jack Christopher prefers the pressing position. That kind of style led to wins in the Pat Day Mile (G2) and Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) this year.

Given that those were shorter races, Jack Christopher might set the pace by default in a nine-furlong race because of his natural speed. But even if he presses the leader again, it will end up as a fast and stressful time on the lead for whomever takes pressure from a talented colt such as this one. The other jockeys face a difficult choice of whether to get brave and engage Jack Christopher, or leave him alone and hope another horse pressures him.

There are a couple of other runners who can make Jack Christopher work and set up the pace for a stalker such as Taiba in the process.  

For example, Howling Time set the pace in his last two starts, and those efforts include him finishing a close second in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) after setting the early pace and continuing to fight in the stretch run.

Given that Howling Time had been struggling on the Kentucky Derby trail before his renewed spark, his connections might hesitate to change what works.

Listed as “possible” on Horse Racing Nation’s Stakes Tracker is We the People, the morning-line favorite for the Belmont Stakes who prefers to set the pace freely. After setting the pace in the Belmont, We the People faded to fourth. Perhaps he could not handle the marathon distance or the Grade 1 class of the race.

Before the Belmont Stakes attempt, We the People set the lead uncontested in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) and won by 10 1/4 lengths.

A lesser-known pace threat is Benevengo, who set the pace in three of his four lifetime starts. In a local $16k optional claimer last month, Benevengo initially set the pace by two lengths before going on to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

Based on his class shown on paper, Benevengo cannot win. But he might get sent up front and attempt to mix it up with Jack Christopher, Howling Time and others before folding, especially with nothing to lose.

As for White Abarrio, he owns good tactical speed and prefers to stalk. He made use of those tactics to win the Florida Derby (G1) in April and more recently ran a good second to Classic Causeway in the Ohio Derby (G3).

White Abarrio should find himself in roughly the same position as Taiba.

Also expect Cyberknife somewhere in the stalking position. He won the Arkansas Derby (G1) with stalking tactics and took the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) more recently by tracking the leader Howling Time.

Cyberknife was one of many speed horses toasted by the Kentucky Derby pace. In that race, he ended up 18th after running in sixth early.

Of course, one of these horses has to settle in last through the opening half. On the probables list for the Haskell, there is not a true deep closer.

In recent years, Baffert has been winning graded-stakes races by taking control of the lead with dedicated pacesetters such as Medina Spirit and others. At this point in his young career, though, Taiba has not shown a preference for that kind of running style. He can either press or stalk, and the latter style looks like the perfect one for this Haskell edition. 

To add some caution, the California dirt 3-year-olds are not the strongest group this year, at least based on some of the results when they ship east of the Rockies. But that trend could change in the latter half of the year. 

Even with the concern, Taiba is a contender in the Haskell.