Analysis: These Belmont Stakes runners sport the right pedigree

Pedigree analysis may pose the biggest challenge of all to a more novice handicapper, as there's a fair amount of misinformation out there that can lead people astray. Remember when Tapit was not considered capable of siring a 1 1/2-mile winner? Years later, he's suddenly the hot stallion in the Belmont Stakes, which will be run for the 151st time Saturday at Belmont Park.

The dam side, however, is equally important, and what the siblings accomplish provide strong hints. No Dosage Index or other strange number formulas are required.

As a side note on the dangers of Dosage, a few years ago I wrote an article on the flaws of American Pharoah’s Dosage because the formula discounted Pioneerof the Nile. HRN’s pedigree analyst, Laurie Ross, has taken shots at what's an antiquated way to look at bloodlines.

In any case, here's a look at the Belmont field separated into three pedigree categories. Also note that a good distance pedigree is not necessarily an endorsement of the horse, as he can show other flaws which might affect his ability to perform well.

Good for 12 furlongs

Everfast – Some pedigree handicappers might see A.P. Indy as the grandsire and Awesome Again as the damsire and believe that is enough to know he wants longer. Taking it one step further, the dam Awesome Surprise is a full sister to Wilko, who won the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and finished second in the 2006 Dubai World Cup. Whether Everfast is talented enough, he wants to go longer. His overall ability is another question.

Master Fencer – I don't like the Japanese’s horses chances, but the pedigree is there. His sire, Just a Way, won the 2013 Tenno Sho (G1) and competed in longer routes throughout his career, while the dam Sexy Zamurai made all 27 career starts in routes. On pedigree alone, he can get 1 1/2 miles. Plus I have concerns he'll move too soon, ala Mine That Bird in 2009. Timing a deep closer's move is tricky at Belmont.

Tax – Arch is fine as a longer distance sire. His most well-known son is Blame, who won the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic over Zenyatta in a brilliant race. He also sired Pine Island, who won the 2006 Alabama Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles. As for the bottom side, the dam Toll is a half-sister to Cheery. Cheery produced Elate, who won the 2017 Alabama Stakes and 2018 Delaware Handicap, also at 1 1/4 miles. There are not any flaws to point out.

Sir Winston – As with with Everfast, one could look at the immediate names and say the sire Awesome Again and dam sire Afleet Alex are enough evidence. The latter won the 2005 Belmont Stakes, after all. The dam La Gran Bailadora also made 24 of 25 career starts in routes, although her wins came at mostly middle distances. The second dam Affirmed Dancer did compete as a turf router and won up to nine furlongs. There is nothing strong against Sir Winston's case to get a longer route here, as he should enjoy 12 furlongs.

Intrepid Heart – Tapit over a Touch Gold mare puts him on this list too. The latter sire won the 1998 Belmont Stakes, spoiling Silver Charm’s Triple Crown bid. As mentioned, the former is the hottest Belmont Stakes sire right now. The dam Flaming Heart also produced Commissioner, who finished second in the 2014 Belmont, and Mythical Bride, the dam of Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) winner Vino Rosso, who finished fourth in this race last year.

Tacitus – The morning line favorite shows Tapit over the First Defence mare Close Hatches. She ran not too long ago, taking the 2013 Gazelle Stakes (G2) and 2014 Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) at nine furlongs. Her other graded stakes wins came at shorter distances, but in the dirt female division, there are not a lot of opportunities to compete at 1 1/4 miles or longer. His blood tilts towards longer, and the way he runs matches this opinion.

Neutral

War of Will – Categorizing him here required extensive consideration, as his underneath side is beautiful for going long. The half-brother Tacticus (not to be confused with Tacitus) won the 2015 Birdstone Stakes at 1 3/4 miles and Temperance Hill Invitational at 1 5/8 miles. But Tacticus also was sired by A.P. Indy, the ultimate dirt routing influence who is the grandsire of Tapit as well. War of Will's sire War Front ran as a sprinter, possibly canceling out the long-distance influences on the bottom side.

Joevia – This pacesetter is hard to analyze from a pedigree standpoint because his immediate family lacks accomplishments. His dam Peace Process did not race, while his half-sibling Osceola Point ran nine times and showed no talent, earning $3,442 overall. For what it is worth, the third dam Special Broad won the 1994 Tempted Stakes (G3) at one mile. Her other wins came at sprints and middle distances though.

Questionable

Bourbon War – A Tapit here? At first glance, most people might put this closer into the long-distance category. But there are some red flags on the dam side. The precocious My Conquestadory broke her maiden in the one-mile 2013 Summer Stakes (G2) and won the Alcibiades Stakes (G1). But when stretched out to nine furlongs in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) one year later, she faded. Also notice My Conquestadory’s half-sister, Saharan, who won three of 16 races, with each victory at six furlongs. Bourbon War’s best races have also so far come at middle distances, further reflecting the warning signs seen underneath.  

Spinoff – Hard Spun works as a marathon sire, but the bottom side is strong in sprinter/miler types. The dam Zaftig was a quick filly who won the seven-furlong Nassau County Stakes (G3) and one-mile Acorn Stakes (G1), as well as finished third in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. The second dam Zoftig finished second in the 2000 Ashland Stakes (G1) and won the Selene Stakes (G1) at Woodbine, but she never looked comfortable going farther than 1 1/16 miles. The immediate sibling Rugbyman is still active and also runs as a miler. His two wins came in one-turn races at Belmont and Laurel. Twelve furlongs is not the distance for Spinoff.