Analysis: Strike Power must ration speed in Fountain of Youth

Questions surround Strike Power, who will run in the Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park this weekend, just more than two months after his breakout debut that came with a 102 Beyer Speed Figure, still third-best among the current 3-year-old crop.

Although he is 2-for-2, both of his wins came at sprint distances, and Saturday’s race is at 1 1/16 miles.

Not only is the race longer, but it comes around two turns. Strike Power will need to adjust and learn quickly if he is to pick up points toward qualifying for the 2018 Kentucky Derb. 

What are the challenges to overcoming those obstacles? 

First of all, certain sprinters attempting to stretch out find the extra turn as problematic as the added distance, or even more so. It adds to the stress. 

Plus, the 3-year-old son of Speightstown is uncertain to ration his speed going longer. Strike Power may find the normal 23- or 24-second opening quarter for the route distance too slow. Adjusting to that pace can be difficult for a sprinter.  

For example, when top sprinter Takaful tried to stretch out in the 2016 Remsen Stakes (G2), he looked like a run-off sprinter. He could not relax at all at first.

Yet, when Takaful runs in sprint races, he barely holds the lead by a length or two. He can even sit off a horse, as shown in the 2016 Vosburgh Stakes (G1). 

Strike Power’s connections are fully aware of the need to ration his speed, as he recently worked a half mile with a workmate. 

“He settled off of Carlino and finished up nice,” trainer Mark Hennig said.

But certain horses will behave in the mornings and act completely different in the afternoon. As another example, Irish War Cry supposedly rates and passes horses kindly in morning hours, but acts stressed out without the lead during real races. 

As another dash against Strike Power’s routing potential, the connections started him in a 5 ½-furlong sprint to begin his career. Then he progressed to seven. 

Think about a horse like Marconi (another possible Fountain of Youth starter), who began his career in three straight nine-furlong races. His connections are so confident he hates going shorter that they are avoiding the one-mile Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct.

Strike Power made his career debut in one of the shortest sprints possible, which does not always mean anything. But it might mean the connections saw he was a sprinter.  

Finally, Strike Power also fails to switch leads properly in the stretch. As the distances get longer, this could cause him to become even more tired.  

To add some positivity to this post, Strike Power does own a nice routing pedigree. 

His dam Gold d’Oro competed as a turf/synthetic router in her career. Furthermore, his second dam, Gold Canyon, only won one race, and it was a dirt route. 

Pedigree does not always translate well. Remember the sprinter Secret Circle? He had a wonderful long-distance pedigree and could not stretch his speed. 

As horses progress and try new situations, bloodlines start to matter less. 

But the pedigree is solid for two turns. It is hard to dispute this. 

In addition, Hennig is well-respected by the horse community. No one would be sad if this analysis was wrong and Strike Power loved the extra distance and turn. 

He still needs to face proven routers such as Good Magic, Free Drop Billy, Storm Runner and Marconi. For bettors, the value needs to be there on Strike Power. 

For fans who do not bet, though, Strike Power is a fun horse for which to root. A nice career sprinting awaits if he fails going long.