Analysis: Iowa Derby card has 1 race to spread, 1 to single
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With three stakes races offering over $200,000 each Friday night, Prairie Meadows commands the attention of the racing public for at least a few hours this week. Two days ago this blog gave out a value selection for the Cornhusker Handicap (G3). Today, the focus is on the two 3-year-old stakes races before the Cornhusker.
The $250,000 Iowa Derby is not an easy race to attack, but the $225,500 Iowa Oaks (G3) offers a possible single with a strong Grade 2 winner present in the field.
Here are the selections.
Prairie Meadows Race 6: Iowa Derby
Earlier this month, Gagetown won the local Prairie Mile Stakes on this course by a neck over Flash of Mischief after wearing him down in an exciting stretch duel. The effort looks strong in the results chart, as there were noticeable gaps between each finisher after the top two horses. When the field becomes thin late with large separating margins, it signals a fast race.
On paper, there is enough speed for Gagetown to show his late punch again.
It is notable that Brad Cox trains both Gagetown and Snow House, and Florent Geroux rides for Cox on a regular basis. Geroux had ridden Snow House once before, when he broke his maiden at Keeneland. He also rode Gagetown in his first four career starts. Geroux went with the more experienced Gagetown.
Gagetown is the top choice, but also consider Flash of Mischief since he lost by only a head. Some of Flash of Mischief’s route attempts earlier in his career were not great, but it looks like he has developed to a higher point since then. He is supposed to handle the slight stretchout as a half to Royal Mesa.
Rightandjust also offers intriguing value at 10-1. In his most recent start in the Texas Derby, he gave a nice effort in the lane to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths. Notice the type of company he kept earlier in the year on the Derby trail when he ran seventh in the high-quality Louisiana Derby (G2) and sixth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2).
Consider including the favorite Super Stock too, just in case.
Super Stock had won a weak edition of the Arkansas Derby (G1) with a good trip behind the speed and then ran a dismal 16th in the Kentucky Derby. But his closing fourth by 3 1/2 lengths in the Texas Derby is a good effort for this level.
Prairie Meadows Race 7: Iowa Oaks (G3)
Army Wife brings career-best form into this race after winning the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) at Pimlico. She also ran a good third in the Gazelle Stakes (G3) after encountering traffic problems and checking at a critical point in the stretch.
The Gazelle winner Search Results went on to finish a great second in the Kentucky Oaks and win the Acorn Stakes (G1) at Belmont. She is considered one of the top 3-year-old fillies in the country, which means Army Wife lost to a talented runner.
In the Black-Eyed Susan, while approaching the turn Army Wife always gave the impression that she was going to crush the field once she found a path to strike.
Watch as Army Wife switches to the path outside Lady Traveler and eventually passes her under mostly a hand ride. .
Army Wife is too far ahead for Willful Woman’s closing bid.
No other filly in this race owns a Grade 2 win, and Army Wife took the race in a manner that indicates she can easily pick up a few more Grade 2 or 3 races.
Also, there is enough speed in this race to give Army Wife a fair shot. For example, Sister Annie is a confirmed pacesetter. Windmill has run exclusively in sprint races as a presser mostly. She is likely to give Sister Annie trouble on the front end. The long shot Shesa Mystery could join the two fillies up front as well.
Pauline’s Pearl is the morning-line favorite in this race and another mid-pack runner similar to Army Wife, but she does not look any better in ability than Army Wife. Even though she owns a 108 on TimeformUS from her eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks and Army Wife’s top figure is a 107, it does not feel like Pauline’s Pearl runs faster visually.
In any case, Army Wife overcame a Pimlico speed bias in her win. When comparing speed figures, the bias deserves consideration as it possibly hampered her.
Army Wife is the choice and a possible single.
Here are the selections.
Prairie Meadows Race 6: Iowa Derby
Earlier this month, Gagetown won the local Prairie Mile Stakes on this course by a neck over Flash of Mischief after wearing him down in an exciting stretch duel. The effort looks strong in the results chart, as there were noticeable gaps between each finisher after the top two horses. When the field becomes thin late with large separating margins, it signals a fast race.
On paper, there is enough speed for Gagetown to show his late punch again.
It is notable that Brad Cox trains both Gagetown and Snow House, and Florent Geroux rides for Cox on a regular basis. Geroux had ridden Snow House once before, when he broke his maiden at Keeneland. He also rode Gagetown in his first four career starts. Geroux went with the more experienced Gagetown.
Gagetown is the top choice, but also consider Flash of Mischief since he lost by only a head. Some of Flash of Mischief’s route attempts earlier in his career were not great, but it looks like he has developed to a higher point since then. He is supposed to handle the slight stretchout as a half to Royal Mesa.
Rightandjust also offers intriguing value at 10-1. In his most recent start in the Texas Derby, he gave a nice effort in the lane to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths. Notice the type of company he kept earlier in the year on the Derby trail when he ran seventh in the high-quality Louisiana Derby (G2) and sixth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2).
Consider including the favorite Super Stock too, just in case.
Super Stock had won a weak edition of the Arkansas Derby (G1) with a good trip behind the speed and then ran a dismal 16th in the Kentucky Derby. But his closing fourth by 3 1/2 lengths in the Texas Derby is a good effort for this level.
Prairie Meadows Race 7: Iowa Oaks (G3)
Army Wife brings career-best form into this race after winning the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) at Pimlico. She also ran a good third in the Gazelle Stakes (G3) after encountering traffic problems and checking at a critical point in the stretch.
The Gazelle winner Search Results went on to finish a great second in the Kentucky Oaks and win the Acorn Stakes (G1) at Belmont. She is considered one of the top 3-year-old fillies in the country, which means Army Wife lost to a talented runner.
In the Black-Eyed Susan, while approaching the turn Army Wife always gave the impression that she was going to crush the field once she found a path to strike.
Watch as Army Wife switches to the path outside Lady Traveler and eventually passes her under mostly a hand ride. .
Army Wife is too far ahead for Willful Woman’s closing bid.
No other filly in this race owns a Grade 2 win, and Army Wife took the race in a manner that indicates she can easily pick up a few more Grade 2 or 3 races.
Also, there is enough speed in this race to give Army Wife a fair shot. For example, Sister Annie is a confirmed pacesetter. Windmill has run exclusively in sprint races as a presser mostly. She is likely to give Sister Annie trouble on the front end. The long shot Shesa Mystery could join the two fillies up front as well.
Pauline’s Pearl is the morning-line favorite in this race and another mid-pack runner similar to Army Wife, but she does not look any better in ability than Army Wife. Even though she owns a 108 on TimeformUS from her eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks and Army Wife’s top figure is a 107, it does not feel like Pauline’s Pearl runs faster visually.
In any case, Army Wife overcame a Pimlico speed bias in her win. When comparing speed figures, the bias deserves consideration as it possibly hampered her.
Army Wife is the choice and a possible single.
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