Analysis: Spielberg not worth playing against in Bob Hope

From a betting value standpoint, the Grade 3, $100,00 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar on Sunday is a questionable race to attack with one clear standout and heavy favorite in Spielberg.

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Although this is hard to admit as a bettor who constantly searches for an alternative, there is little point in betting against Spielberg. The 3-year-old son of Union Rags hits most of the important categories, including top speed figure and proven class, while the rest of the field is a tick below. Plus, Bob Baffert trains him.

The top speed figure came in Spielberg’s last start, when he finally broke his maiden locally on Nov. 1 by a neck with a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He beat a promising colt in Parnelli, with another 8 ¼ lengths back to the third-place horse.

It is impressive how the leading duo opens up on the field. Also, it is nice to see Spielberg want to win after losing his first three starts. 

Consider that Parnelli only lost by a neck to Hot Rod Charlie in an Oct. 2 maiden race at Santa Anita. Hot Rod Charlie went on to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, losing by ¾ of a length to Essential Quality with a 112 on TimeformUS.

Parnelli’s effort against a future Breeders’ Cup runner-up in Hot Rod Charlie only backs up Spielberg's quality in their own matchup, both in terms of speed figure and class.

Before Spielberg broke his maiden, he also ran third in the American Pharoah Stakes and second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), giving him two Grade 1 placings. When an experienced trainer such as Baffert starts a maiden in any graded stakes race, it signals confidence. Unfortunately, he did need a bit more seasoning after all before tackling those races.

Spielberg owns a taste of victory now though, and cuts back both in distance to seven furlongs and class to easier horses than Parnelli.

Even at low odds, Spielberg is the choice.

Consider whether this race is worth the time though, especially since Spielberg is a low 6/5 on the morning line. Is 6/5 acceptable for playing Spielberg on top in vertical wagers such as an exacta? Then, the only rational strategy is finding a value pick for second.

Weston is the morning line second choice at 3-1, and an unreliable selection given the late fade in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He was third by 5 ½ lengths. If he remains second choice, he is not a great value.

Ambivalent is 7/2 on the morning line. He ran a dismal sixth in the Champagne Stakes (G1), 25 lengths behind Jackie’s Warrior. With that said, he could improve in his return to California racing and offers higher odds than Weston.

Forget about Uncle Boogie at 5-1. If he manages to pick up second in a Grade 3 off a runner-up finish in a starter allowance, then there is no point to class handicapping.

Also cross out the 15-1 Coastal Kid, who lost a stakes race at Emerald Downs by 13 ½ lengths.

The only option left is the 6-1 closer Red Flag, who broke his maiden for trainer John Shirreffs with an impressive wide move in a Santa Anita turf sprint on Oct. 10.

Prior to the turf win, Red Flag was a closing fifth in a local maiden race, losing by 8 ½ lengths to Superman Shaq. Keep in mind that Red Flag began the race 15 lengths behind the pacesetter, which means he did move significantly.

In the Bob Hope, perhaps Red Flag can pick off the tired horses once again when Spielberg opens up in the stretch and puts his pace foes away. Once Weston and Ambivalent fold, Red Flag can get second.

At 6-1 on the morning line, Red Flag offers more value than Weston and Ambivalent too. A $1 straight exacta of Spielberg over Red Flag might pay at least $7 or more.

The Bob Hope is not the best race to play with an exacta or trifecta. But for players who want some action on a Saturday afternoon, a win bet on Spielberg followed by a straight Spielberg over Red Flag exacta is a decent enough play.

For multi-race wager purposes though, single Spielberg. Not every favorite is worth playing against, and this one looks too tough to beat. Spielberg figures to move forward now that he knows how to win a race.

But if Spielberg does lose against this weaker group after the solid win over Parnelli, then move on. There is no point regretting not playing a longer price when the longer prices were not plausible winners anyway.