Analysis: Speed play for Texas Derby; 3 Sexton Mile picks

Lone Star Park offers an excellent set of stakes races on Memorial Day, with two competitive dirt routes in the $300,000 Texas Derby and Grade 3, $400,000 Steve Sexton Mile to highlight the back end of the card. 

The lone selection below for the Texas Derby is an intriguing speed horse who drops down in class, but the Sexton Mile analysis is spread out into three picks.

Lone Star Park Race 9: Texas Derby

Dreamer’s Disease’s last three starts make him look like a constant quitter. But he was severely pace-compromised in those three starts, so he deserves another chance from bettors.

Four starts ago in an Oct. 3 optional claiming race at Keeneland, Dreamer’s Disease led from gate to wire at the one-mile distance and won by 4 1/2 lengths.

One month later, Dreamer’s Disease set a fast pace under pressure in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before fading to sixth. He still ran a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Then in December, Dreamer’s Disease tried the New York Stallion Series Stakes at Aqueduct, where he stumbled at the start, contested a fast pace and folded to seventh as the 3-5 favorite. Given his low odds, the finish was disappointing. But the early stumble and poor pace scenario relative to his style contributed to his failure to hit the board.

Next out on May 1, Dreamer’s Disease had the misfortune of returning against the one-dimensional speedball Jackie’s Warrior in the Pat Day Mile (G2).

Watch Dreamer’s Disease burn against two high-class 3-year-olds.

After the first two fractions in a blazing 21.75 and 43.68, Jackie’s Warrior still led by a half-length over Dream Shake, with Dreamer’s Disease only another half-length back in third. Dreamer's Disease could not keep up with the torrid pace and faded to sixth by 11 lengths.

For his early efforts in the Pat Day Mile, Dreamer’s Disease posted career high TimeformUS Pace Figures of 153 and 150 before giving way in the stretch. Despite the fade, Dreamer’s Disease also earned a final 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which ties for the second-highest speed figure on dirt in the field. Super Stock holds the high figure at 116. 

Dreamer’s Disease’s one-mile optional claiming win in October at Keeneland proves he can win a two-turn route. The son of Laoban needs only to secure the lead uncontested to give his best shot. Notice how Dreamer’s Disease also broke his maiden on turf last August at Ellis Park with an uncontested lead.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, Dreamer’s Disease’s biggest pace threats in the Texas Derby are Rightandjust, It’s My House and Warrant. But Warrant has never led any race in four starts.

If Rightandjust is allowed to use his natural speed, he might contest the lead with Dreamer’s Disease. From studying Rightandjust’s two most recent starts, though, it seems his connections are intent on teaching this speedster to rate. Rather than dueling with Dreamer's Disease, Rightandjust is more likely to sit a length or two behind.   

Out of those three names, It's My House is the most probable candidate to contest the lead against Dreamer's Disease. Two starts ago, he set the pace in the Turf Paradise Derby before stubbornly holding on by 3/4 of a length to win. But Dreamer’s Disease would find contesting the lead with It's My House easier than with Jackie’s Warrior or Dream Shake.

These are different types of speed horses. Dreamer's Disease could not handle Jackie's Warrior, but he is supposed to withstand It's My House.

Dreamer’s Disease deserves one more chance. With that said, if he fails for the fourth time in a row against this field, then bettors might as well give up on him.

Lone Star Park Race 11: Steve Sexton Mile (G3)

This is not an easy race.

Some handicappers might concede the win to By My Standards, and that is fair after his successful return in the Oaklawn Mile, where he beat Rushie by a nose with a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The impressive part is that Rushie had the jump on By My Standards by slipping through the rail, but By My Standards mowed Rushie down late anyway.

Another contender is Silver Prospector, who enters on a four-race losing streak. Even with four straight losses, he shows a 123 on TimeformUS for his runner-up to Mystic Guide in the Razorback Handicap (G3) and 120 for his sixth in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Out of this group, the 123 is the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure this year.

As for a third contender, C Z Rocket has turned into the most consistent horse in training under Peter Miller, with seven wins in eight starts under his care. His only loss in that timespan came in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, where he ran second to Whitmore. This year, C Z Rocket made his return with wins in Hot Springs Stakes and Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn, beating Whitmore in the latter race.

The stretchout for C Z Rocket is not a huge deal. He does own one win in five tries at the one-mile distance, and that came under old connections.

This feels like a spread race in multi-race wagers with By My Standards, Silver Prospector and C Z Rocket. If Silver Prospector starts at 8-1 or higher, then he is worth a win and place bet.