Analysis: Single the California shipper in Rachel Alexandra
Besides Slow Down Andy, trainer Doug O’Neill also sends Awake At Midnyte to Louisiana for the Grade 2, $300,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday. In this important points race, 11 aspiring Kentucky Oaks contenders will run 1 1/16 miles around the main course, with 50 Oaks qualifying points going to the winner.
Based on the usual standards of handicapping, Awake At Midnyte is the choice. First, here is a short recap of her three races to this point.
Awake At Midnyte broke her maiden last October by a neck at Santa Anita in a six-furlong sprint. About a month later, she gave a nice effort to finish second by a nose in the Jimmy Durante Stakes (G3) on turf at Del Mar.
In Awake At Midnyte’s third start, she put in another nice effort to finish second by 3/4 of a length to Under the Stars in the Santa Ynez Stakes (G2). Under the Stars proved too tough in the lane, but Awake At Midnyte fought valiantly after settling into a stalking position early and making a wide move on the turn.
Awake At Midnyte finished 6 1/2 lengths ahead of the third-place Miss Mattie B.
Now to make the case for Awake At Midnyte as the single in the Rachel Alexandra.
For the runner-up effort in the Santa Ynez, Awake At Midnyte earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 97 Brisnet Speed Rating. Both numbers represent the highest speed figure in the race using each respective brand.
On the pedigree front, Awake At Midnyte is supposed to handle the slight stretchout to 1 1/16 miles and has two notable male influences in her immediate family.
Awake At Midnyte is a daughter of Nyquist out of a Union Rags dam named Midnight Union. Nyquist won the 2016 Kentucky Derby, while Union Rags took the 2012 Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles. With those two sires in her blood, the need to dive further into the dam line is not necessary.
From a positional standpoint, Awake At Midnyte owns the tactical speed to clear the middle part of the field from Post 9 and take up a stalker role. She figures to sit about two lengths behind speed types such as La Crete, Turnherloose and Hidden Connection. If the pace heats up a touch with those three speed fillies without going too crazy, then the expected stalker position will help Awake At Midnyte get first run.
Another reason to choose Awake At Midnyte is because the key race angle is applicable to her successful career debut. In Awake At Midnyte's career debut last October, she beat the Baffert duo of Adare Manor in second and Under the Stars in third.
Look at how well both Adare Manor and Under the Stars are developing.
Adare Manor made a mockery of the Las Virgenes Stakes (G3) on Feb. 6 at Santa Anita with a 13-length win and accompanying 119 on TimeformUS. As for Under the Stars, as stated above she won the Santa Ynez Stakes (G2) over Awake At Midnyte by 3/4 of a length while earning a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
The other four fillies in the Rachel Alexandra to surpass 100 on TimeformUS Speed Figures are Miss Mattie B, Dream Lith, Divine Huntress and Hidden Connection.
Of those four names, Divine Huntress is the most interesting because of her effortless 12 3/4-length win in a Parx optional claiming race. From watching the replay, she galloped home in easy fashion without trying. The concern is that Divine Huntress needs more seasoning to take this next step into a graded stakes race.
Miss Mattie B faded to third in the Santa Ynez and, as described above, faces two other speed types in La Crete and Hidden Connection in this spot.
Dream Lith won the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs last November. According to TimeformUS, though, trainer Robertino Diodoro is surprisingly not as sharp at Fair Grounds. TimeformUS gives him only a lowly 59 rating on this racetrack.
Hidden Connection seems overrated. She won the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) last September by 9 1/4 lengths over a weak field. She was no match for Echo Zulu in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies while losing by 13 1/2 lengths in fourth.
Given Awake At Midnyte's credentials, speed figures and other factors, she is the right choice for the Rachel Alexandra. Expect Awake At Midnyte to stalk closely and make a bold move on the far turn. From there, she should overpower the field.
Consider a Doug O’Neill with Doug O’Neill late double. Awake At Midnyte can be linked with Slow Down Andy in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). With Slow Down Andy certain to not go favored in the featured race, the late double might pay a decent amount.
Win: 9
Double: 9 / 10