Analysis: Senor Buscador holds figure edge in Springboard Mile
As expected, the $200,000 Remington Springboard Mile brings together an eclectic group of Oklahoma-based 2-year-olds and shippers, with both sides hoping to earn Kentucky Derby points on Friday night.
Common wisdom dictates that shippers hold the advantage over Remington horses, as the competition is deeper elsewhere. But there is one local Mineshaft colt on the rail named Senor Buscador who deserves a look.
Senor Buscador enters this race after breaking his maiden locally on Nov. 6. After breaking slow and lagging in last by 8 3/4 lengths in the 5 1/2-furlong sprint, he made a sustained run while angling outside and eventually ran strongly past the leaders to win by 2 1/2 lengths.
Senor Buscador earned a 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is higher than any dirt TimeformUS figure of the horses at single-digit odds on the morning line, including Outadore, Cowan, Joe Frazier and Number One Dude. Plus, Senor Buscador won the race easily under only a mild ride, signaling there is step forward in him in his second start.
For added positives, TimeformUS gives Todd Fincher a 94 rating overall, and he owns at least one Remington win in five tries over the past year. Is a high-percentage trainer such as him going to enter a horse that does not belong? Fincher knows the horse has talent.
The second concern is the stretchout to one mile. To counter that worry, Senor Buscador’s sire is Mineshaft, who is generally regarded as a route sire. On the bottom, Senor Buscador is a half-brother to Runaway Ghost, who took the 2018 Sunland Derby (G3) and 2019 Sunland Park Handicap.
Based on those names in his family, Senor Buscador is supposed to handle one mile. But there is always some element of guessing with pedigree analysis.
To address the rail post, Senor Buscador is probably still a closer at the one-mile distance anyway. He is supposed to fall back for the first half-mile. Afterward, jockey Luis Quinonez can try to angle his way back outside.
According to TimeformUS, the pace is projected as fast early, which generally results in the field spreading out more and opening up room.
At strictly 10-1 odds or higher, Senor Buscador is the value choice. Now, there is a chance the public piles on this local horse and makes him fall below 10-1. In that case, the bettor needs to adjust and use him only defensively in multi-race wagers. Otherwise, he is the a playable long shot. Less confident players can attempt a backwheel key, with the classier horses who are shipping in on top.
Now to discuss whether bettors should respect all four shippers. Three of them made their last start at Keeneland and one at Churchill Downs.
Outadore last ran in the one-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland. He set the pace before fading late to third, 3 1/4 lengths back. Even if he lost, his experience at the distance is important, as he did hit the board at a high level.
One problem, though, is that Outadore lacks any dirt races in three starts. He broke his maiden on Saratoga turf before winning the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint. While this favorite is still usable as part of a multi-race wager, his unknown ability on dirt makes him questionable as favorite.
Joe Frazier brings dirt experience as a first-time out winner at Keeneland in a high-priced six-furlong maiden claimer. But why was he in a claimer, even if an expensive one? He lost his next start in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill by a disappointing 6 1/4 lengths after setting the pace.
In fairness, Joe Frazier is still developing and owns the pedigree to go long. On the slight cutback to one mile on fast dirt, he might improve.
Saffa’s Day is listed at a high 10-1 on the morning line, despite having Steve Asmussen as his trainer. He won his initial start in a maiden sprint at Keeneland by 5 1/4 lengths and then faded to sixth in the Nyquist Stakes.
The fade in the Nyquist at 3-1 is a bad sign, as it hints that his maiden win was overrated. No horse from that Oct. 11 maiden race won since then.
On the plus side, Saffa’s Day is liable to improve on the stretchout as a son of Carpe Diem and Shytoe Lafeet, a multiple route winner in her career. He is usable defensively, just in case he pops a big effort under Asmussen.
Cowan is the shipper to ignore.
In five starts, Cowan never ran past seven furlongs for Asmussen, which is a giant red flag in this one-mile affair. If Asmussen thought Cowan was going to excel in routes, the stretchout to a route distance would come sooner than in his sixth start.
Cowan did run second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in his most recent start. Who cares? That race came on turf at the 5 1/2-furlong distance. Four starts ago when he tried seven furlongs in the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis Park, he faded badly to fifth by 13 lengths.
In any case, Senor Buscador is the value choice, and also a possible win or place bet if he remains at double-digit odds. Use him only defensively if he falls to single digits. Throw in Outadore, Joe Frazier and Saffa’s Day with Senor Buscador in multi-race wagers and find a different race to single.