Analysis: Saffie Joseph Jr. runner can upset Mucho Macho Man

Even though the $100,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday is not an official points race, it might produce notable 3-year-olds to watch on the Florida path to the 2021 Kentucky Derby. The one-mile race on the main track drew 10 entries with no standouts.

Given Mutasaabeq’s success at other major circuits and his trainer Todd Pletcher, he figures to attract a good portion of the money in this race and possibly start as the favorite. Pickin’ Time’s status as the Nashua Stakes (G3) winner will attract plenty of attention too.

However, bettors might want to choose a local horse on the upswing, especially if he shows a reliable trainer and jockey. The Saffie Joseph Jr.-trained Awesome Gerry hits all those checkpoints and is likely to start as third choice or higher despite the presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. on him.

Awesome Gerry broke his maiden on this course in July in a five-furlong sprint, winning by one length with only a 71 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The fact that he won his debut in a claimer is a concern, but perhaps Joseph underestimated him at the time. 

After winning an optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park West, Awesome Gerry then took a shot at the Nyquist Stakes at Keeneland on the Breeders' Cup undercard against tough horses. He ran a non-threatening fourth, losing by 11 3/4 lengths to Highly Motivated. The effort is forgivable because of the field quality and the fact that he is developing.

Note that the second-place Quick Tempo took the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds in his next start, while the third-place Roderick won an allowance race at Churchill Downs. Also, fifth-place finisher Sir Wellington captured the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile Stakes, also at Fair Grounds, in his next start.

As for Awesome Gerry, he ran second in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs at low 6-5 odds in his most recent start, losing by one length to Privet Moon. But the replay shows that Awesome Gerry ran a good race while trying to chase an uncontested leader trained by Brad Cox.

Watch as Privet Moon secures the lead in a comfortable manner.

When Privet Moon tries to separate on the far turn, Awesome Gerry keeps him within range.

Awesome Gerry lost. But at the end, 10 lengths separated Awesome Gerry and the third-place finisher Generator, which is a great sign. It means the two good horses up front went too fast for the slow horses.

Also, Awesome Gerry shows a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the runner-up effort, which is within range of the high figure of 103 by Pickin’ Time.

For a final positive, watch Awesome Gerry’s local Dec. 27 work in company with Irish Honor on XBTV. He looks absolutely sparkling as the exercise jockey needs to hold him back in the early stages before he devours his workmate in the stretch.

To go back to Pickin’ Time, his Nashua victory at Aqueduct is not one to ignore, considering the high TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Forget about Pickin’ Time’s flop in the Remsen Stakes (G2). He lost by 17 1/4 lengths, but either the nine-furlong distance or slop hurt him, as it does not make sense for him to run 17 lengths worse than Ten for Ten after beating him before.  

Now, Pickin’ Time cuts back to a one-turn mile again at Gulfstream and gets the services of jockey Joe Bravo, who works well with trainer Kelly Breen.

Pickin’ Time is the second choice.

Finally, Mutasaabeq is a legitimate contender too. He broke his maiden at the difficult Saratoga meet in August and won the Bourbon Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on turf, giving him class on another surface. Between those starts, he ran a distant third by 12 1/2 lengths in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).

Mutasaabeq turned in a clunker in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but he could rebound in this spot. None of the horses entered here resemble Jackie’s Warrior, making a blowout loss less likely.

The only concern with Mutasaabeq is the price, as bettors tend to side with Pletcher-trained runners blindly on the Derby trail, given his name and past success.

In any case, Awesome Gerry is the most interesting option for a win or place bet, especially if he floats to 6-1 or above. Saffie Joseph Jr. knows how the Derby trail works, as he navigated Ny Traffic to a couple of notable placings in prep races earlier this year. This colt has been slow to develop, but it looks like he is ready to fire his best shot this week.